MONROVIA – There is uncertainty regarding whether Lofa County, one of Liberia’s most populous and vote-rich counties, will continue to fully support the Unity Party (UP), as it did during the 2005, 2011 and 2017 General and Presidential Elections. The 2017 election, especially, was significant as it marked the first post-war democratic transition of power from the leadership of Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and Amb. Joseph N. Boakai of the UP to Senators George Manneh Weah and Jewel Howard Taylor of the Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC).
An Analysis by Lennart Dodoo and James Pappy Kawbo, Jr.
During the first round of the 2017 elections in Lofa, 123,203 of the 167,427 registered voters cast ballots, of which 116,365 were valid. Joseph Boakai of the UP received 91,324 votes, or 78.48% while George Weah of the CDC received 8,194 votes, or 7.04%. Additionally, 96,683 people participated in the runoff election in December 2017. Joseph Boakai of the Unity Party won with 79,258, or 84.21%, of the total valid votes cast, while George Weah of the CDC received 14,860, or 15.79%.
It has been nearly six years since the UP, led by candidate Joseph Boakai, dominated Lofa county across all five electoral districts in both the first-round and runoff elections. It is also approximately seven months until Liberia witnesses and participates in another round of democratic elections in which President George Weah of the CDC seeks reelection and Joseph Boakai of the UP also runs for President.
Despite the fact that Weah’s CDC did not obtain the requisite outcomes in the 2017 elections, it is no secret that the CDC has employed a number of strategies to lessen the Unity Party’s influence in Lofa. As the UP strongly campaigns on the traditional politics of “Uncle and Nephew” and the CDC campaigns on the politics of “Talk and Do,” it is obvious that the debate over who will lead Lofa on October 2023 has intensified ahead of October 10,2023 elections.
Arguably, the 2022 Senatorial By-Election was the first time since the 2017 elections that the Unity Party’s capabilities in Lofa County were put to the test. Unfortunately, the Unity Party’s Galakpai Kortamai was defeated by the CDC-backed Senatorial Candidate Joseph K. Jallah with 22,019 votes to 21,229, a difference of 790 votes.
In spite of Amb. Joseph N. Boakia’s vigorous involvement and campaigning during the 2022 senate by-election, the UP was unable to maintain its majority in those electoral districts where it had entire control during the 2017 elections.
In the first district, where former vice president Boakai is from, the UP received 16,560 votes in the 2017 elections, or 86% of all valid votes, but in the 2022 Senate by-elections, the UP struggled to win 5,543 votes, or 50.34% of all valid votes, while the CDC’s supported candidate obtained 5,017 votes, or 45.56%. Additionally, in District 2, where the UP received 16,737 votes, or 77.64% of the vote, in 2017, it was defeated by the CDC-backed candidate in the 2022 Senate elections. Galakpai Kortamai of the Unity Party received 2,858 votes, or 28.39% of the total valid votes, while Joseph Jallah received 4,526, or 44.95%.
Furthermore, in district number three, where the UP received 17,710 votes or 84.42% in 2017, it lost to the CDC-backed candidate in the 2022 Senatorial by-elections. Jallah received 8,139 votes, or 65.44% of the valid votes cast, while Kortamai of the UP received 2,524 votes, or 20.29%. In District 4, where the UP received 21,196 votes or 73.23% in 2017, the UP maintained its district strength by winning with 4,730 votes or 34.55% in 2022, while the CDC-backed candidate received 2,179 votes or 15.92%. In district five, the UP received 19,121 votes or 74.57% in the 2017 elections, while in the 2022 Senatorial by-elections, Kortamai of the UP received 5,574 votes or 42.27%, while Jallah of the CDC received 2,158 votes or 16.37%.
These recent events in Lofa are a blatant sign that the Unity Party still has a lot of work to do if they want to keep supremacy over Lofa county. Recent opinion polls show that the CDC is functioning well, and if it keeps doing what it is, the UP’s domination would be gone.
Like in 2017, if the UP puts in more efforts and engages the electorates directly rather than assuming that they are and will remain committed to them, there will eventually be a good fight with the CDC, which has continued to demonstrate more visibility and direct engagements with the citizens.
As an example, on April 17, of all the 55 callers who participated in a live radio opinion poll with 70% of them coming from the Zorzor Administrative District and 30% from the Salayea Administrative District, the Unity Party’s Joseph N. Boakai received 31 votes, or 56% of the total 55, while the CDC’s George M. Weah received 24 votes, or 44%. This blatantly conveys the idea that, in contrast to 2017, when the name Weah or the party CDC were hardly ever mentioned aloud, it is now permissible for people to openly call into the radio and request to vote for the CDC in a survey like the one that was done.
Many believe the CDC is still making progress in the county as evidenced by the ongoing construction of the Gbarnga-Lofa asphalt pavement from Gbarnga to Salayea Administrative District in Lofa, the paving of the main streets in Foyah, the building of a modern, multipurpose City Hall, and the ongoing development of a hydropower plant in District Number Two that will supply power to the lower Lofa region, which includes Districts 1-3. As a result, some powerful traditional and religious leaders who helped the UP maintain its dominance in 2017 are now leaning toward the CDC.
To date, the Foyah Statutory District, where the political leader of the United Party resides, was the first of Lofa’s administrative and political districts to petition George Weah to run for re-election, while the Voinjama Administrative District honored and named him “Kolubah,” which is Lorma for “strong man” or “messenger.”
If everything keeps going in the CDC’s favor without any challenge from the Unity Party, it will be difficult, if not impossible, for the UP to maintain its hold on Lofa County at the elections in October 2023 as it did in 2017.