Liberia: Financial Experts Warn Blocking of AML Expansion Could Blow US$200M Hole in Budget

Monrovia – The Joseph Nyuma Boakai administration’s historic one US$1.2 billion national budget may already be facing a major threat from within. Emerging resistance to the ArcelorMittal Liberia expansion agreement is now putting at risk the very revenue assumptions that made the country’s first billion-dollar budget possible. According to sources and senior insiders at the Ministry of Finance and Development Planning, the government’s billion dollar revenue projection relied on several large income streams. Among them, the proposed ArcelorMittal Liberia expansion was one of the most important pillars, contributing an estimated two hundred million dollars plus in signature bonuses and additional fees resulting from the expansion deal to the total resource envelope.

It was this projected amount that allowed the government to confidently move Liberia into a historic billion-dollar budget era. The calculation behind the landmark achievement is straightforward. When two hundred million dollars in anticipated revenue from the expansion is deducted from the one point two billion projections, the figure drops exactly to one billion dollars.

Recent controversy over a ninety-six-million-dollar budget in error with no supporting revenue source further fueled public criticism. The MFDP has since clarified that the figure was a clerical mistake. Senior budget technicians maintain that while the error appeared serious, it does not alter the deeper fiscal structure. The expansion revenue from AML remains essential for sustaining the budget. The mistaken amount was a symptom of documentation challenges, not the cause of the budget’s fiscal vulnerability.

Multiple government officials close to the process say a small but influential group of Ivanhoe -aligned actors is actively working against the ArcelorMittal expansion. Their opposition has increasingly become a stumbling block for the administration’s revenue and investment agenda. According to insiders, these internal efforts could undermine the administration’s credibility and push the government into fiscal instability

The accusations reflect a broader struggle over competing mining interests. Ivanhoe, through its Liberian subsidiary Ivanhoe Liberia, is pursuing a rival infrastructure project that depends on access to the Yekepa to Buchanan rail line. These competing interests have created what appears to be an internal split within the administration. The faction resisting the ArcelorMittal expansion is believed to be promoting the HPX agenda even at the expense of short-term fiscal stability.

High Stakes for the National Budget
The consequences of blocking the AML expansion could be severe. Without the two hundred million dollars projected from the deal, the government faces an immediate budget shortfall. This would have direct implications for development programs, payroll stability, service delivery, and the administration’s ability to meet commitments made in the budget. It may also force the Ministry of Finance to revise the national budget downwards, a politically damaging step for an administration that celebrated the one-billion-dollar milestone as a symbol of renewed national ambition.

Budget experts warn that a shortfall of this size could also affect Liberia’s credibility with international financial partners, including the International Monetary Fund and other development institutions that monitor government revenue capacity and fiscal discipline.

The internal contest over the ArcelorMittal expansion is fast becoming a test of the administration’s cohesion. Some senior officials within the National Investment Commission worry that the disagreement is no longer confined to technocratic debates but is shifting into full political territory.

“The blocking the AML deal by officials within the MFDP, MOJ and others may ultimately hurt Liberia more than any external political opposition. The expansion would have strengthened the country’s largest concession, secure long-term mining revenue, and anchor a stable fiscal path for the next decade”, a source at the National Investment Commission said.

Many in the Boakai administration believe Liberia cannot afford to jeopardize its biggest budget achievement due to internal rivalries or competing private interests. The coming weeks may determine whether the administration can realign itself and protect the revenue base needed to sustain the country’s first billion-dollar fiscal milestone.