Over the last several weeks, the Vice President of Liberia and Standard Bearer of the Unity Party received many endorsements-many unprecedented- in several parts of the country and amongst thousands including influential political actors.
The highlight of the endorsements was the one done in Karnplay involving a group of young people under the banner Nimba Youth Alliance for Boakai. It is neither the name of Nimba nor the thousands that converged that mattered but that it was done in Karnplay, the heartbeat of Sen. Prince Johnson’s throttlehold, spoke volume.
Endorsements are important political tools that sway voters but then, as far as history remembers, are also fundamental contributors to complacency. I will now narrate my latter proposition in the next paragraphs.
Sitting calmly and looking at the Joe Boakai’s candidacy, from afar, and the ire of inevitability with which his supporters are approaching the elections, I am but reminded about what happened to Hilary Clinton in the 2016 elections in the US when all pundits concluded that it was over – there was path for Trump.
As the popular saying goes, “elections are not won until they are won” but I see the Joe Boakai movement creating this narrative that the elections are over. I can only hope that what they are presenting is a campaign flavor and they are not using the current momentum to allow complacency to set in because history has a way of teaching very important lessons in very dramatic ways.
Those who are supporting Joe Boakai need to understand that we live in a very traditional society in which it would be uncustomary for people to tell their elders “no” but let’s not forget that voting takes place in secrecy and at those moments, people have the freedom to express themselves as they think so all the endorsements, while extremely important do not write the final chapter in the electoral story.
Our country has a young, largely urban population that may not succumb to the instructions of the “elders” especially since their defiance may not be made public and by the time you get to know it, it will be very late.
Please don’t get me wrong about the chances of Joe Boakai in these elections. It can be argued that he has, probably, the best chance of getting elected when compared to all other candidates.
I proffer this argument because of two fundamental causes: the fragmentation of the opposition and then because of the way the Vice President has carried himself for many year. He comes across as a matured, less polarizing figure that has waited for his time.
Additionally, many of the young people who are interested in electoral or presidential politics see the Vice President as the true political transition that the country needs. Many of them think that the Vice President is very harmless and more than likely will not be able to contest for a second term even if he wanted to.
Those from this school of thought argue that if any other candidate amongst the pack were elected, that person has the potential of running a second term which means that those interested in presidential politics may have to wait for another 12 years.
Against this backdrop, many of them may be inclined to support the Vice President. They think he is calm and stable and will not rock the boat. The fact is that his whole life has demonstrated that and so it is easy to believe that scenario.
With all that said, let’s remember that several things could go wrong that could stop the Vice President from being elected as the 24th president of the Republic. Before I lift some of these issues, let me establish first that the Vice President doesn’t have quite an established electoral record that we can go back to analyse like in the case of Charles Brumskine or Field Marshall Johnson or soccer star Oppong Weah.
However, to the best that we know, Joe Boakai attempted a run for the presidency in 1997 by contesting for the Standard Bearer position of the UPP. At the Monrovia City Hall, he lost to G. Baccus Matthews in the primaries.
Since that time, we have only seen him on the ticket of the Unity Party as a running mate so then the performance of the UP in Lofa County might be the closest proxy we have for the Vice President’s electoral record. In 2005 the UP was able to garner only 13,161 votes out of the 54,004 votes cast. Senator Sumo Kupee got 13,325 to be elected as Senator.
This meant that Senator Kupee got more votes than the team that combined the star power of Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and one of Lofa’s sons who had spent a considerable amount of his adult life in the county.
Then in 2011, as sitting President and Vice President, the UP was able to get 64,623 votes in a county that registered 157,029 voters of which 100,499 turned out to vote.
The question that these numbers raised is that why did only 100,499 people turn out to vote when their son was up for re-election as Vice President?
We might never know the true answers but as an analyst and political strategist, I would be concern about that. Well, like I said there isn’t much that we know about the electoral politics of Joe Boakai as a standalone candidate but the above information gives us an idea.
Now, as we approach the polling day, and it is clear that the Vice President and his team arguably have the upper hand in these elections, I wanted to use this medium to proffer that some things could go wrong thereby causing the Vice President to lose the elections.
For example, if the Vice President, with all the resources at his disposal is still not able to announce a campaign team and a running mate this late in the game, it speaks volume about the kind of the campaign he is running.
Here is the danger in not having a campaign team; it means also there is no strategy because it is the campaign team that is supposed to come up with a strategy and if there is no such team then it suggests that there might be no strategy.
Now the bigger problem with there been no strategy and campaign team is that all of these endorsements do not strategically fit into any plan to win the elections. Usually, endorsements are strategic and must lead to something else that helps the cause.
If these endorsements are just loose or accidental occurrences that don’t tie into something larger, then what will take those people to the voting booth and make them to mark the ballot in your favor?
There is usually a plan in place after the big endorsements are made because all those attending the program usually tend to be part of every other program that will happen in their area and there are sometimes disconnect between the political elites who planned the endorsement and ordinary people whose votes really count. So the lack of proper strategy or plan could potentially hinder the Vice President’s rise to power.
Still on the lack of strategy or plan; because these gatherings don’t fit into a strategy, it might cost the candidate a lot more money as he may have to return to those areas to redo what he could have done in the first place. And as the campaign becomes constrained for resources and other candidates go to that area, there is likelihood they could easily sway voters to their camp.
Now another thing that could go wrong with the Vice President’s campaign as it relates to the delay in making a critical decision about running mate while he racks up all these endorsements is that they could fall apart once the decision is made because it is becoming apparent that most of those who are endorsing him are doing so with some implicit understanding that a member of their sect is being considered for the running mate position. What if that doesn’t happen?
These endorsements could be worth nothing or we could easily see some people use that as an excuse to jump ship especially since jumping ship is becoming the new normal in the country’s body politic.
Let me put little flesh on the bone regarding this subject matter. For example, the folks from Nimba are counting on the VP to name someone from their ranks. Within the Nimba team, there are those who think that the person should come from the Gio side of the divide. What if no one is chosen from Nimba or what if it is not a Gio person?
On the other side, the 19 senators that made the endorsement are hoping that it would be one of them and within that group, they hope that it is a Senator from the Southeast. What if it is none of them? What if it is not a southeasterner?
Again, the Bong endorsement is also counting on the Vice President to pick someone from Bong or at least a Kpelle speaking person. What if that doesn’t happen? Just what if?
Because the critical decisions that could potentially wreck the campaign have not been made and especially since various groups have vested interests, there is a danger of racking up these endorsements before these critical decisions.
Do you remember the Urey, PYJ and LINU merger that is already breaking apart because the fundamental question was not answered before the signing? The Vice President and his team need to sit down and understand all these risks and make strategic political decisions regarding the campaign or the consequence could be dire.
Indeed, there is a still a lot that could go wrong with the Vice President. Wrongs that could rob him of the October elections.
Robin Lee Tarpeh is a Political Consultant and Strategist with First Consulting and can be reached at [email protected]