World Bank: Liberia Can Unlock 5.3% of GDP in Fiscal Space by 2030

Monrovia — Liberia could unlock additional annual fiscal space equivalent to between 3.9% and 5.3% of GDP by 2030 if it implements reforms aimed at increasing domestic revenue, improving natural resource management and making public spending more efficient, the World Bank says.

By Gerald C. Koinyeneh, [email protected]

The assessment was contained in the World Bank’s “Liberia Public Finance Review 2026: From Stabilization to Fiscal Transformation,” launched Monday in Monrovia.

Speaking at the launch, Georgia Wallen, World Bank Group Country Manager for Liberia, said the country’s public finances have reached a critical turning point following improvements in economic and fiscal management.

“Economic growth has strengthened, the fiscal deficit has narrowed significantly, and public debt has declined,” Wallen said, attributing the progress to what she described as “proactive policy choices and sustained commitment.”

She said the next challenge is to build on those gains by mobilizing more public resources while ensuring that existing resources are spent more effectively.

The $8.4 Billion Challenge

Wallen said Liberia’s Vision 2030 and the government’s ARREST Agenda for Inclusive Development will require approximately $8.4 billion over five years to finance priorities including infrastructure, human capital development, economic transformation, governance and social inclusion.

The World Bank’s review, she said, seeks to address a central question: How can Liberia create sustainable fiscal space to finance its development ambitions without undermining recent gains in fiscal stability?

The report identifies four major opportunities.

The review estimates Liberia’s tax gap at approximately 3% of GDP, indicating significant room to increase revenue without necessarily raising tax rates.

The World Bank recommends stronger tax compliance and enforcement, alongside greater use of technology and improved implementation of Liberia’s Revenue Code and Medium-Term Revenue Strategy.

Getting More From Natural Resources

Mining revenues have increased nearly fivefold over the past decade, rising from approximately $27 million in 2016 to $141 million in 2025, according to the review.

The World Bank says Liberia could increase the contribution of the sector further through better information-sharing, stronger revenue administration and improved coordination among government institutions responsible for managing natural resource revenues.

Making Every Dollar Count

With significant progress made in fiscal consolidation, Wallen said Liberia must now focus on ensuring that public spending produces greater results.

The review recommends improvements in project preparation, procurement and payroll management, as well as closer coordination between domestically financed projects and investments supported by external partners.

4. Protecting Fiscal Gains

The World Bank also calls for stronger oversight of state-owned enterprises, more prudent debt management and better integration of climate and commodity-price risks into fiscal planning.

Such measures, the report says, would help protect Liberia from future economic and fiscal shocks.

Building on Existing Reforms

Wallen stressed that the Public Finance Review is not intended to create another lengthy reform agenda for the government.

“The PFR doesn’t seek to add another list of reforms simply,” she said. “Rather, it seeks to help policymakers prioritize, sequence, and accelerate actions for the greatest impact.”

She said the World Bank views the report as the beginning of deeper engagement with the Liberian government, development partners and the private sector to translate the recommendations into concrete reforms.

Wallen said expanding fiscal space would ultimately have a direct impact on the lives of ordinary Liberians by helping finance roads, electricity, healthcare, education and climate resilience.

The ultimate objective, she said, is job creation and an improved quality of life for Liberians