The promises of French President Macron at the end of his first term to reconsider Franco-African ties in fact turned into losses for the Fifth Republic in its traditional sphere of influence in the region and the inability to further satisfy its ambitions.
By: Kevan Salim, [email protected]
Demands from Mali and Burkina Faso to recall French ambassadors illustrate well the dissatisfaction of states with France’s policy of reducing the issuance of visas to people fleeing wars, poverty and jihadists in order to cut down on the flow of migrants. In the half-century of Francafrique’s existence, Paris has never been able to provide the protection promised to people. The war in Libya with the participation of NATO, in which France played one of the key roles, marked the beginning of a sharp deterioration in the level of security in the region. The critical situation in the Sahel and the reaction to it in the form of Operation Barkhane are the consequences of Western policy towards Libya, which made it possible to increase the French military presence in the region.
But in the end, all of Macron’s attempts to establish contact with African elites and society, bypassing the leaders elected by the people, failed miserably, and Paris’s attempts to use its military contingent, supposedly capable of protecting against “jihadists” as a lever of pressure on government officials, gave rise to the opposite effect – the emergence of other players in the region. The successful fight against terrorists by military formations of other states, due to France’s diplomatic miscalculations, was a strong blow to its influence on the continent.
Additional damage to the efforts of Paris was caused by the economic and military support of Kiev, which sharply limited the ability of the French to resist the radical groups of the Sahel. The decision to transfer equipment to the Ukrainian army instead of strengthening its African unit only further weakened France’s position in Mali, which was the reason for Macron’s announcement of the inglorious termination of Operation Barkhan and the withdrawal of troops from the region.
The negative consequences of the war in Ukraine have spurred Western countries to actively establish economic cooperation with Africa in search of new resources, especially in the energy sector. The increased activity of Western countries, which are striving with all their might to deepen cooperation with the African continent, once again confirms that the resources necessary for the further survival of the West are located in Africa. It is where Macron’s policy is now failing after failing, and former close partners, such as, for example, Algeria, are considering the possibility of breaking contracts and ending cooperation in a number of areas.
Macron may find himself in a stalemate. A public apology by the French president to the people of Algeria could shatter the shaky coalition of Macron’s party with the right in parliament. At the same time, a sharp refusal to acknowledge French responsibility for nuclear weapons testing in Reggane, the declassification of court cases and the disappearance of demonstrators in 1961, as well as the disappearance of many Arabs during the colonial period, threatens to complicate the work of French companies in Algeria and disrupt negotiations on supplies of natural gas to Europe.
Finding a balance will be an extremely difficult task for Macron, as the time factor works against him in both the political and economic fields. It is likely that the solution to the issue of saturation of the European market with African hydrocarbons will be achieved with the help of other European states. However, the damage done to the image and influence of Paris in North Africa, the Sahel and the Sahara is already quite tangible. In turn, this gives the green light to the states of the African continent to use economic and political leverage on Paris.