Monrovia – The past three weeks have been very political in Monrovia with each political party attempting to show supremacy over Montserrado County through mammoth crowds at their respective rallies.
Report byLennart Dodoo, [email protected]
According to the 2008 population census, the county has about 1.1 million inhabitants, making it the most populated county in the country.
The county accrued 777,503 registered voters in the recent voters registration exercise, making it a key determining factor in the upcoming elections, according to the National Elections Commission. This means having the greater share of the votes in Monterrado County in Presidential elections puts you at an advantage to winning the elections.
When Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC) led by Montserrado County Senator George Manneh Weah launched its political rally on August 19, Monrovia stood still.
The party estimated an attendance of 2 million people, though the overall voting population, according to the NEC is about 2.1 million.
Weah has, however, been a heavy weight in the county based on results from the 2005, 2011 Presidential elections and most recently the 2014 midterm senatorial elections that made him Senator of Montserrado.
In the first round election in 2005 in Montserrado County, CDC accumulated 138,513 votes which represented 37.4% of the total votes cast compared to Madam Sirleaf’s 110,720 which represented 29.9% of votes cast.
However, in the runoff in November, after other forces had pledged their support to Madam Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Weah came second to Madam Sirleaf with 158,397 (45.5%) compared to her 189,739 votes constituting (54.5%).
In 2011, in Montserrado, there was a slim variation of votes between the CDC and the Unity Party in the first round. The CDC had 207,710 votes (45.8%) while the Unity Party had 201,246 (44.4%).
The 2011 results showed a depreciation of the CDC’s strength in the Presidential race, especially in the first round. The party boycotted the runoff election, claiming electoral fraud in the first round. Observers, however, termed the election as credible, free, fair and transparent.
But he again his showed his supremacy over the county in the 2014 senatorial election in which he won landslide against Mr. Robert Sirleaf, son of President Sirleaf.
Liberty Party led by Cllr. Charles W. Brumskine also launched its campaign rally on September 9 and had their fair share of the crowd that disarrayed traffic on the Tubman Boulevard. The head of press and propaganda of the party, Abraham Darius Dillon put the attendance at over 200,000. Indeed they took the city by storm in a show that they’re very close to taking over power.
In the 2005 elections, Mr. Brumskine managed to attain 45, 375 votes which constituted 12.2% of the total votes in Montserrado County. He, however, lost his third place position to Nimba County Senator who beat him in Montserrado County.
But Brumskine is hopeful of clinching onto the presidency, believing in himself that he is the most suited for post. The turnout at his launch, if crowd means anything positive to elections, could be a sign of great hope of winning. It would his third time running for the presidency.
For a new party like All Liberian Party led by business tycoon, Benoni Urey, not many would have thought he was capable of attracting thousands of supporters as he did last Friday, September 15 when he launched his campaign at the Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Central Monrovia. This would be Urey’s first time running for an elected position as he claims he aims at giving Liberia back to the ordinary Liberians.
The ruling Unity Party made a statement last Saturday, September 16 just when many had believed that the party had become unpopular amongst Liberians, due to perceived failure of the government to meet many needs of the people.
The partisans and sympathizers flooded the ATS beyond its 15,000 holding capacity with several thousands, also standing out of the stadium – locking down central Monrovia completely. Their partisans were not even deterred by the deluge that came down on Saturday.
Do Crowds Really Matter in Elections?
Pundits are busy figuring out how the crowds that are braving the odds to attend political rallies will translate into actual votes on October 10.
Crowds at rally, according to some pundits, do not always translate into votes in a country like Liberia. In the views of some, it is the same group of people following every politician with the expectation of getting a few dollars.
There have been instances where some members of the crowds were the same individuals captured at two or three different rallies in the T-shirt of the particular political party. Many were heard after some of the rallies that they were on loan and that they do not belong to the party which rally that had attended.
Such claims of “astroturfing,” the practice of using money and outside support to create the illusion of grassroots enthusiasm, are not unheard of in the political sphere.
In another case, several thousands in the crowds might not be eligible voters, either by not meeting the age qualification to vote or perhaps, just didn’t register to vote, yet they feel they must follow crowd and add up to the numbers.
Multiple polls conducted so far suggest that more than forty percent of voters are undecided, making the ongoing competitive game of numbers a somewhat complicate measuring guide to who has the edge.
What many agree on however, is that these elections are competitive and will more than likely head to a run-off. Politicians on both sides, however, have found in recent elections that numbers can be deceiving. Candidates who have fallen prey to crowd politics in the past may take cue before relying solely on how much numbers they are able to draw and how much psychological muscle they are able to pull.