The first notable and consequential decision to be made by any presidential candidate is the selection of a running mate. This decision is of grave consequence because whoever is selected as running mate is a “heart beat” away from the presidency.
Most times, announcement of such candidate is informed by an extensive work done by a party committee appointed by the candidate to scout and analyze the suitability of potential mates. Only in rare instances will you find the presidential candidate suggesting a running mate to an executive committee for appraisal and endorsement.
In most democracies, reliance, moral decency, mature headship and firmness are sought when choosing a running mate but then in Liberia, a fundamental addendum to the named attributes is the case with numbers.
Yes, in this part of the world, numbers largely outweigh those universal attributes.
Numbers really do matter In Liberia! Therefore, it is not too surprising to many (me included) over the length of time it is taking Vice President Boakai to choose his running mate. It is a laborious task and if it is skillfully executed, the person selected may certainly become the next Vice President of Liberia.
So far, pundits have tucked up six (6) names including Dr. Antoinette Monsio Sayeh, Director of the African Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF); Cllr. Tugbaty N. Warner, Dean of U.L Law School; Dr. Henrique Tokpah, Minister of Internal Affairs and former President of the Cuttington University; Sen. Gbehzongar Milton Findley, former President Pro tempore of the Senate; Atty. Samuel Kofi Woods, former Minister of Public Works; and Honorable Matenokay Tingbeh, a legislator from vote rich Nimba County.
Of the six names, three (3) are from the Southeastern part of the country and due to context, the three names from southeast is not a huge surprise. Vice President Boakai seemingly favors a southeastern candidate because he thinks it will help to unite the country.
Associates of the Vice President have asserted that he believes that given the Southeastern belt has not had a realistic shot at the top leadership of the country, the selection of one of its sons (daughters) as running mate, could not only woo the region to endorse his candidacy but will garner the needed support during the next six years of his stewardship.
While there’s angst on the part of the VP in broadening the democratic space, it will be presumptuous to believe that without a poll or a thoroughly review exercise, any uninformed decision made about the southeast may have damning consequences.
If there was never a time for a cooler and steady head to act, this is a perfect opportunity for that kind of exhibition.
By every stretch, Dr. Sayeh comes to the table very prepared. With an enviable international résumé and local public sector knowledge, she fits the bill as a good pick.
Like Dr. Sayeh, Cllr. Tugbaty Warner is an experienced public servant with extensive international and private sector experience.
Atty. Woods comes to the table with a rich background in advocacy and over decade long senior management experience. His career spans from his time at the revered Catholic Justice and Peace Commission to Ministry of Public Works under President Sirleaf.
Unlike Dr. Sayeh, Both Cllr. Warner and Atty. Woods bring youth to the ticket and could just court outsiders charmed by their legal prowess and academic finesse.
While it must be noted that Sayeh, Woods and Warner hail from VP Boakai’s preferred Southeast, other efforts aimed at consolidating the bloc will have to be accompanied by the sanctification of several stakeholders of the Southeastern counties.
One notable potential pick who is almost never mentioned is Gbehzongar Milton Findley, former President Pro Tempore of the Liberian Senate. Unlike the three other candidates, he hails from Grand Bassa County and is credited for one of the biggest electoral upsets in 2005 but then one of the most surprising losses nine years later in 2014.
Though he was very instrumental in undermining Cllr. Brumskine’s niche in Bassa in 2011-a cardinal reason leading to his removal in 2014- his electoral loss to a generally unknown Jonathon Kaipay has placed a stain on his political garment.
Before the inclusion of Dr. Sayeh, Dr. Henrique Tokpah was the presumptive pick of the Vice President. Coming out of vote rich Bong and current Minister of Internal Affairs, his association with chiefs added to the missing rib of the Vice President Boakai to secure a political hat trick for the governing Unity Party.
Unlike the three, Dr. Tokpah is principally known as a school administrator. His only stint at electoral politics came in 2014 when he narrowly lost to Sen. Jewel Howard-Taylor in a fierce runoff in Bong County. As a newcomer, his loss was in itself a victory.
Commentators believe that had he been on Unity Party’s ticket, Sen. Taylor would have been a former senator by now.
If there was anyone more visible and putting himself up for a potential pick, all fingers will be staring at Rep. Tingbah. With attachments to NAMBO, a political movement that supports the VP bid, he brings a certain form of political capita coupled with youthful exuberance.
However, his county of origin is both an incentive and a liability. Nimba has the numbers and any credible running mate is expected to bring in the required numbers.
Unfortunately, there is a Prince Johnson factor that diminishes the strength of any other candidate.
Having provided abbreviated analyses of the potential candidates, it is now fair to lay out clearly what the Vice President needs and what may hurt is bid.
Woods, Sayeh and Warner are outstanding potential picks and the nomination of any of the three people will bring the needed credibility to the ticket. Warner is an anti-corruption czar and his handling of the law school is an indication of what he does with profound responsibilities.
Dr. Sayeh’s public record is also outstanding and as culled from the IMF, she led Liberia through the clearance of its long-standing multilateral debt arrears, the HIPC Decision Point, the Paris Club, and its first Poverty Reduction Strategy, significantly strengthening Liberia’s public finances and championing public financial management reform.
Atty. Woods, too, was a notable voice during the Taylor dictatorship.
He challenged the autocracy and helped using the JPC’s platform, to provide free legal aid to disadvantaged segments of the society. Pioneering efforts to begin the revitalization and reconstruction of basic infrastructures under the Sirleaf Administration were started when he was at the helm of leadership at Ministry of Public Works.
However, Kofi Woods has lost contact with his base-primarily made of students. Other than the vain progressive nostalgia, Atty. Woods adds no numerical value to the ticket.
Given that the VP enjoys a huge support from major stakeholders from the southeastern region including the endorsement of his presidential bid by almost every senator in the southeast, all three candidates bring little in terms of numbers to the ticket. In Maryland, both sitting senators, Gbeh-blo Brown and Dan Morais have endorsed his candidacy.
In 2011, the Unity Party was second best to Cllr. Tubman and his CDC with 12,327 votes accounting for 42.5% of the total votes. With the two important endorsements, it is expected that at least 50% of the votes in Maryland is firmly secured.
However, it is also very important to note that the candidate of the Alternative National Congress (ANC), Alexander Cummings is from Maryland. Judging by the voting trends of Liberians, Mr. Cummings should get considerable numbers from his native county.
Mr. Karnwea, too, of the Liberty Party has a presence in commercial Pleebo and could attract some votes for the Liberty Party.
In nearby Rivergee, the Unity Party outperformed all of the other candidates in the two successive elections. In the last general elections outing, 54.7% (9,809 votes) were acquired.
Again, both Senators Conmany Wesseh and Matthew Jaye are firmly in the VP’s camp. Except there’s a real shocker, nothing is expected to significantly change in Rivergee electoral-wise. A replica of the Rivergee scenario is also akin to Sinoe and Grand Kru where the UP won 46.6% and 48.0% respectively in 2011.
However, unlike in 2011 where the presumptive senator, Peter Coleman was supporting the CDC in Grand Kru, he now supports the Vice President and has held many town hall meetings to give reasons for his endorsement.
Already Sinoe County with its two rearing senators serving as surrogates of the VP, a clean sweep is the likeliest outcome.
Grand Gedeh is the biggest elephant in the southeastern room. Twice it supported the CDC with huge percentages. Unlike 2005 and 2011, there is a new general in town. Recent phone-in radio shows suggest that the long-held grips for the CDC are beginning to weaken.
There’s more UP presence (or at best VP’s presence) in Grand Gedeh than ever before. Son of the former President of Liberia, Samuel K. Doe, Jr is a known surrogate of the Vice President.
A young charismatic Lighe is Minister of Labor, pushups from Rep. Pennue and Sen. Gaye are expected to greatly assist the Vice President.
In summary, Southeast Liberia is already voting VP Boakai and the picking of any candidate from that region adds nothing numerically to the ticket.
In Nimba, there’s a roaring Matenokay Tingbah. Other than the youthful excitement and the county shield, Rep. Tingbah comes with the least preparation.
He has little depth. Besides the sloganeering, he offers little to the national conversation. His appointment will present an imposing company to the presidential candidate.
With inroads already being made by Chairman Wilmot Paye in his home district, the selection of Tingbah will present a liability. And if the veracity of an unpublished ANC survey in Nimba is anything to seriously consider, Tingbah’s reelection may hit a huge cliff.
His focus on getting nominated as running mate and abandoning his electoral district is going to hurt him badly. Besides, there are two serious challengers in Nimba; Sen. Johnson and Hon. Karnwea. Both men bring a lot to the table and will undermine any serious bid from a third challenger.
In neighboring Bong, Dr. Tokpah also faces a dilemma. Both Coalition for Democratic Change and Alternative National Congress have selected their vice running mates from Bong County.
Sen. Jewel Taylor and Amb. Jeremiah Sulonteh have been around the political cycle for many years and have contested many elections in political parties and as general elections candidates. Both eminent citizens of Bong have been tried and tested and pose a serious political hiccup for a third running mate.
While there is a substantial ground game from several senior citizens of the county including, Tornorlah Varpilah, Sen. Franklin Siakor, former political leader of the Liberty Party, Superintendent Mappy and Rep. Moye, the selection of Dr. Tokpah doesn’t help further.
In 2011, the Unity Party won 42.9% of the votes from Bong. With the guidance of Tornorlah Varpilah and other forces aligning behind the Vice President, it is expected that significant numbers will be acquired again from Bong County.
It may necessarily not be the same 40 plus percent, but it could be around the upper 30 percent.
The case among the Kpelle speaking tribe is going to be aided by a prominent member of the tribe, Emmanuel Nuquay.
He is head of the Legislature and backs the vice president. His presence on the trail will attract additional support among his kinsmen in Margibi County.
That said, the question that lingers is, what additional number is being brought to the table by Dr. Tokpah? In the selection of running mates, it is critical question you may want to answer.
It is a question that wins an argument about a running mate in a contentious elections and the 2017 poll is a one hell of an election! Without an actual incumbent, the field is just too level to take such a major risk.
All of this filters into what is the thinking about the Bassa belt that comes out of Montserrado to Rivercess and then extends to parts of Bong and Lower Nimba.
Using the 2008 Census as a guide, 271,573 Bassa speaking people are eligible to vote. Unlike the southeast as bloc (excluding Rivercess), Nimba and Bong, there is no real activity in the Bassa Belt. It will therefore be electorally disastrous to cede the belt to the Liberty Party candidate.
There should be a viable presence in the belt that will challenge Cllr. Brumskine for some of the votes in there.
In 2005, with little presence from anyone in Grand Bassa, Cllr. Brumskine obtained 38,498 votes constituting 58.0% of total valid votes. In Rivercess, Cllr. Brumskine again got 46% of the valid votes.
Even though he got 18% of the votes in Margibi, he got 46% in the predominantly Bassa speaking areas. The available data in Montserrado, Bong and Nimba is too complex to do a fine extrapolation but then, from the available numbers in Margibi, Bassa and Rivercess give a fair assessment of how voting was done in the said belt.
The 2011 story was quite different. Gbehzongar was Madam Sirleaf’s principal surrogate in the Bassa belt and it did not take long for the numbers to change. In Brumskine’s favorite Grand Bassa County, even though there was a surge in registered voters of 8,000, he only got 28,039 votes representing 37.6% of valid votes cast.
With Gbehzongar as head of the campaign in Grand Bassa, Madam Sirleaf and the Unity Party got 24,798 votes representing 33.2% of the total valid votes. For Rivercess, there was a dramatic change, the LP only managed 18.5% of the votes coming third to both UP and CDC. His numbers were also horrible in Margibi.
He appealed to only 6.8% of the voters and won only 21% of the votes in the Bassa speaking area. All of that came on the back of UP’s presence in the Bassa belt.
Unfortunately, a lot has changed since. Like Cllr. Brumskine would confirm, LP is better financed now then in 2011.
While I believe that he misinformed all of us that the main funding source is from contributions from their members, it must be said LP is well funded and better organized than 2011.
Then comes Gbehzongar Findley. He comes in the picture partly stained from 2014. His loss is both a blessing and a curse. Even with Madam Sirleaf’s attempt to return the 2011 favor, he was up against an unforgiving Brumskine in 2014.
The LP did not want two masters in the Bassa corridor and would fight with everything to have Gbehzongar replaced. It was a tough battle and eventually, Brumskine came out victorious but with wounds.
He chose a Jonathon Kaipay that would end up being a flop, a disgrace and a conspicuously inept in the senate. Bassa lost the post of senate pro tempore and an important voice in the senate because of Brumskine’s ego. Gbehzongar left bruised but soon found solace in his relationship with the president and now presides over one of the president’s signature projects, the RIA revitalization initiative.
Even as Gbehzongar was defeated by a virtually unknown Kaipay, who himself was introduced to politics by Sen. Gbehzongar Findley, the numbers in the runoff are not bad as believed.
With an ever-present Brumskine throughout the 2014 campaign, Gbehzongar still took several thousand votes representing 36.3% of the votes in Bassa.
This is very significant for him and the Vice President. In Liberia, elections are won by popular votes. With no presence in the Bassa belt, VP Boakai’s best bet should be Gbehzongar Milton Findley.
With more than 271,573 Bassa speaking voters, this should ring a bell to the Vice President. Too much risk is assigned when that number is left to Cllr. Brumskine and his Liberty Party.
Gbehzongar comes to the ticket as a known face in the belt. Even 30,000 more votes added to what the UP is going to take in Lofa, Bong, Nimba, Montserrdo, Margibi, the Southeast and Western Liberia, it takes the VP almost to the finishing line.
The real contender for UP is the LP. It is a battle for 2nd round and any attempt not to see it from a bird’s eye approach, VP Boakai and the Unity Party should be willing to kiss the presidency goodbye.
Robin Lee Tarpeh is a Political Consultant and Strategist with First Consulting and can be reached at [email protected]
Robin Lee Tarpeh, [email protected], Contributing Writer