Monrovia – Toward the close of the 2017 Presidential elections, then Vice President Joseph Boakai drew one of the biggest gatherings of Unity Party supporters, striking fears into opponents, including the then opposition Coalition for Democratic Change, that the presidential election was pretty much a wrap.
By: Rodney D. Sieh, [email protected]
Last weekend, the UP once more came out slinging, drawing impressive numbers reminiscent of 2017, but not as much, while cementing these elections into a two-horse race between the former ruling Unity Party and the current ruling CDC.
Ben Sanvee, a former chair of the opposition Liberty Party, and currently a co-host on the Closing Argument, says Sunday’s show by the UP, while impressive, was not seismic – or a real game changer. “I don’t believe so. The Unity Party did what she had to do to reaffirm her spot as a major contender in these elections. I remember vividly in 2017 when I was Chairman of Liberty Party, I received a call from the then Chairman of CDC Nat McGill, after the UP campaign rally expressing serious concern about the size of the crowd UP was able to assemble, owing to the fact that they had been in power for twelve years and there was an air of Change blowing, but we all know that they went on to lose the 2017 elections. 2023 will be won based on the ability of the major parties getting out the vote, protecting the polls and the attraction of new voters. Plus, any party that is expected to get more than a 100k votes in Montserrado should be able to do what UP did on Sunday.”
In the absence of Presidential polling and debates, the traditional gathering of crowds has become the norm during Liberia’s election season, denying voters a chance to really hold candidates’ feet to the fire – and make sound choices at the ballot box
The Collaborating Political Parties of Alexander Cummings is yet to show its final strength although it has been showing similar strengths in direct engagements with voter, and plan to close out its campaign on October 6.
The issue of crowding is not without controversy. Many political observers say, while the pulling of crowds may be good for perceptions in a nation where debates amongst candidates are frowned on and polling is often marred by controversial or the lack of adequate funding to really gauge voters, crowd gathering has become a way of gathering steam and momentum.
Tipoteh Laments ‘Money-Driven’ Rallies
The issue, however, doesn’t seem to be sitting well with a lot of people.
Dr. Togba Nah Tipoteh, a noted and highly regarded economist, educator, and politician, who himself has participated in three presidential elections laments that crowd gathering offers an unfair advantage to voters. “Candidates are trucking and promoting the buying of NEC staffers and voters with money and non-money items,” Dr. Tipoteh says.
Additionally, Dr. Tipoteh advocates for legislation that would force candidates to participate in national debates. However, he says, because legislators are so corrupt and are most unlikely to legislate correctly, that could pose serious impediment to any such move. “We have some good laws but bad legislators who do not implement good laws.
Ironically, the Constitution of the Republic of Liberia clearly gives the people the right to dissect leaders aiming to lead, but very seldom do the citizens realize the powers at their disposal.
Article I of the constitution states: “All power is inherent in the people. All free governments are instituted by their authority and for their benefit and they have the right to alter and reform the same when their safety and happiness so require. To ensure democratic government which responds to the wishes of the governed, the people shall have the right at such period, and in such manner as provided for under this Constitution, to cause their public servants to leave office and to fill vacancies by regular elections and appointments.”
Most often, half of voters who turn out to rallies fail to show up to vote on election day. Arend Lijphart of the American Political Science Association once opined that “low and unequal turnout is a serious problem for democracy because election results fail to reflect the preferences of the citizenry.”
Registered Voters vs. Votes Cast
Recent history of elections in Liberia have shown that despite huge turnouts at rallies, the number of voters showing up to cast votes often fall short.
For example, in the 2005 Presidential elections, out of the 1,352,730(one million, three hundred, fifty-two thousand, seven hundred and thirty registered voters, out of the nearly five million population, only 1,012,673(one million, twelve thousand, six hundred and seventy-three persons cast their votes.
Six years later, in the 2011 elections, out of the 1, 798,930(one million, seven hundred, ninety-eight thousand, nine hundred and thirty registered voters, only 1,283,087(one million, two hundred, eighty-three thousand, eighty-seven voted. In 2011, the Electoral Institution of Sustainable Democracy in Africa reported a turnout of 61% as compared to the 74.9% turnout in the first round. While the 2011 election saw incredible turnout in the first round, turnout on the day of the run-off was low, with some polling stations closing early upon realizing that no more voters would show up. Political observers point to the lack of excitement and anticipation as a key reason for that.
The numbers, while slightly more, were similar in the 2017 elections which brought President George Manneh Weah to power. Out of the 2,183,629(two million, one hundred, eighty-three thousand, six hundred and twenty-nine registered votes, only 1,641,922(one million, six hundred, forty-one thousand, nine-hundred and twenty-two persons voted.
Issues Lost in the Shuffle
All this in a nation where burning issues like the economy, education, security and the traditional bread and butter issues are left unattended, unaddressed, and hardly spoken about by candidates in not just the presidential but the senatorial and legislative elections as well.
Recently, former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, currently the head of the West African Elder Council (WAEF) and Chairperson of the West African Elder’s Forum in Monrovia, urged political parties and candidates eyeing the presidency to desist from inflammatory rhetoric that can jeopardize the nation’s peace and undermining the democratic process of the country. “I caution Liberians and politicians to embrace issue-based campaigning, abusive languages, and insults have no place in our society and should have no place in our elections,” the former president said, after separate meetings with political actors including President George Weah, both Houses of the Legislature, the National Elections Commission, and Ambassadors accredited to Liberia and key opposition leaders including Alexander Cummings of the ANC, Joseph Boakai of the UP, Senator Prince Johnson.
With so much at stake in these elections, international stakeholders are leaving no stone unturned.
Andreas Schieder, a Member of the European Parliament, and head of the EU election observers’ mission to Liberia says the scheduled October 10 elections represent a significant test for the democratic consolidation in Liberia. “I trust that state authorities, political parties and all candidates will play their part in promoting a credible, peaceful, transparent and inclusive electoral process”, said Chief Observer Mr., during a press conference in Monrovia, last Friday.
The EU Election Observation Mission (EU EOM) to Liberia was deployed at the invitation of the Liberian authorities and arrived in Monrovia on 27 August with a team of 10 analysts. The mission observes and assesses the General Elections against national law, commitments and obligations for democratic elections deriving from international and regional standards, as well as good practices for democratic elections.
CDC, UP Lead in Crowd Game
Since the start of the campaign season, the ruling Coalition for Democratic Change has been in the driver’s seat, drawing thousands of partisans and supporters. On September 7, supporters of the party stormed the Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia with a strong show of strength of its own. Similarly, the former ruling Unity Party followed on Sunday, September 18 in similar form and fashion. With the current and former ruling parties leading the way, the Collaborating Political Parties faces the daunting task of following the footsteps of what is inarguably the two frontrunners, at least on paper and perceptions of crowd gathering and the implications on next month’s elections.
George Wisner, Chair of the Montserrado County campaign team of the CPP says the CPP has been working on its own strategy and not laying so much emphasis on pulling crowds. “From Bassa to Nimba from Cape Mount to Gbarpolu, from Grand Bassa to Montserrado, and all across the Southeast, the CPP is being greeted by a massive turnout of Liberians,” says Wisner. “This confirms the resolve of Liberians to openly reject the reelection of President Weah in favor of real change in the direction of our country and the lives of suffering Liberians. President Weah will be a one-term president. What the CPP is also doing is engaging at the grassroot levels – in every town, every village, and knocking on every door. On October 6, again, we will give Liberians another opportunity to speak to their disappointments and dissatisfaction with the lack of jobs, “harmonized pay,” neglected hospitals, runaway corruption, and a messy educational system when they turnout in their thousands to support Mr. Alexander B. Cummings and the CPP, the obvious choice to fix Liberia’s broken and corruption system as well as the repeated mismanagement of our country.”
Social Media Bragging Rights
The rallies in recent weeks have caused a firestorm on social media where rival parties are claiming bragging rights. In the buildup to Sunday’s rally, UP surrogates such as Senator Abraham Darius Dillon, for example, claimed that the UP would ground Monrovia to a halt when it took to the streets, on Sunday, September 17, 2003. Some UP supporters even bragged that they would need two stadiums, the ATS and the Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex to try and outdo the ruling CDC.
While some candidates have used the rallies as a stomping ground for speeches and party agenda, others have not.
On Sunday, for example, former Vice President Boakai, as he did in 2017 spoke very little about his vision and hope for Liberia. However, in a speech he did not fully read at the end of the rally, he did state: “We are all excited and optimistic about what is now a national call to rally citizens of this great country for a rescue mission to reverse the hardships so many Liberians and their families have been subjected to for the past 6 years”.
On the flipside, the incumbent Weah, despite his lapses used his platform a week earlier to point out that the gather was aimed at showing the world that the CDC remains the people’s party. “We did it before and we can do it again. We are here because of what we have achieved together and to show the world how true democracy works. We have freedom of press and of the press, gender equality and women empowerment. We have young empowerment and participation in government; together we have achieved a lot in infrastructural development.”
President Weah claimed that the turnout was a show of love by Liberians for their country and to manifest same for him and the CDC come October 10. “On October 10, 2023, vote for George Manneh Weah for President, your leader, your father, your brother, and your friend; vote for Jewel Howard Taylor for Vice President, your mother, your sister and your friend.”
The Liberian leader said first time voters have made the right choice to support the CDC, “the people’s party and your party.”
Smaller Parties Not Sold on Crowding
A week prior, CPP’s Cummings used a stomp in Margibi County, urged voters to give President Weah a red card for playing intentional foul on the political field of play. The CPP leader described the incumbent as a footballer who knows that if a player intentionally plays a foul and causes serious injury, the person will get a red card.
For smaller parties, with limited reach, the issue of crowds should have no bearing on who voters choose to elect. Allen Brown, Presidential candidate for the Liberia Restoration Party argues that he does not believe that crowds will play as big a role as some people believe because the upcoming election will be about conviction over money.
Says Brown: “Spend $25,000 for a crowd and you will get a large crowd. Spend $50,000 for a crowd and you will get a larger crowd. What you get from money, you sell for money. What you gain from conviction stays with you. My platform addresses the issues that are relevant to our people. My policies are unconventional because we need radical change to improve the lives of our people. I stand with the downtrodden, the disadvantaged, the voiceless, and I will make sure that their lives are improved. My policy to move Liberians from being tenants to becoming landlords not only changes the lives of our people here at home, but also provides a pathway for our people in the diaspora to return home. There is no doubt in my mind that on the 10th of October the Liberian people will identify with a platform that addresses their needs, provides hope for their aspirations, and secures a future for their children, and give me a resounding victory.”