Monrovia – In the elections of October 1985, four parties contested the race for the Liberian Presidency: Samuel Doe’s National Democratic Party of Liberia(NDPL), Jackson F. Doe’s Liberia Action Party(LAP), school teacher, Gabriel Kpolleh’s Liberia Unification Party(LUP) and Edward Kesselly’s Unity Party(UP). It was the first elections since the April 12, 1980 coup d’etat that brought Doe to power but more importantly, it was also the elections that triggered the long-running civil war.
By Rodney D. Sieh, [email protected]
The ’85 elections polling was marred by allegations of widespread fraud and rigging. Official results showed that Doe won the presidential election with 50.9% of the vote, just enough to avoid a runoff. His NDPL won large majorities in both houses of the Legislature.
The Liberian constitution requires a candidate to secure more than 50% of the votes to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this threshold, a runoff between the top two contenders is then held.
Stuffed Ballot Boxes of ‘85
LAP’s Jackson F. Doe, who many believed won those elections tallied 137,270 for 26.46 percent, Kpolleh came in third with 59,965 votes for 11.56 percent while UP’s Kesselly tallied 57,273 for 11.04 percent. Less than a million Liberians cast their votes in that election.
Doe’s handpicked head of the National Elections Commission, Cllr. Emmett Harmon, announced that Doe had won 50.9 percent of the total vote, proclaiming him the new civilian president and declared: “We feel that as a commission we have truly interpreted the vote of the people of this country and have no remorse of conscience. The vote-counting procedure “was directed by the hand of God.”
The Washington Post reported in the aftermath of the elections that thousands of ballots were burned beside a rural road north of Monrovia and independent observers confirmed opposition party reports that ballot boxes were stuffed with votes for Doe’s National Democratic Party.
The Post reported: “Harmon, who kept in daily contact with Doe, refused to probe widespread reports of election-day fraud and intimidation of voters by Doe’s government. He charged repeatedly, however, that opposition parties had bribed sheriffs and poll workers across the country. The informed observers have dismissed as groundless Harmon’s charges, for which he offered no evidence. Ignoring laws that Doe himself approved for this election, Harmon disqualified an election-night vote count made while observers from the opposition looked on. That count, the observers said, gave the election to the Liberian Action Party’s candidate, Jackson F. Doe, who is no relation to the head of state.”
At the time, it was revealed that Doe had the ballots counted in a secret location by his handpicked officials at the National Elections Commission during a time that witnessed massive human rights -abuses, corruption and ethnic tensions, ultimately leading to the start of the First Liberian Civil war in 1989 and Doe’s overthrow and murder in 1990.
Shortly after the voting, Kpolleh, was detained and a five-man committee set up to investigate allegations he had made against Doe’s Government. The charges were later dropped by Doe to ease national reconciliation. Mr. Kpolleh, went on to accuse Doe’s government of preparing to fake a coup in order to crack down on the opposition.
‘27 Record-Breaking Fraud
Not since the elections of 1927 had an election been so lopsided and controversial. Referred to as “the most rigged ever” by Francis Johnson-Morris, a former head of the National Elections Commission, the 1927 elections also made it into the Guinness Book of World Records as the most fraudulent election ever reported in history. Despite there being fewer than 15,000 registered voters, Charles D.B. King received around 240,000 votes (according to the official falsified results), compared to 9,000 for Faulkner, theoretically resulting in a voter turnout that was in excess of 1,660%, giving King of the True Whig Party, a third term after defeating Faulkner of the People’s Party.
In 1997, a similar scenario unfolded when rebel leader Charles Ghankay Taylor’s National Patriotic Party (NPP) won the election with 75.3% of the vote, giving it about three-quarters of the legislative seats.
At the time, Mr. Taylor’s campaigned was trumpeted by the slogan: “He killed my ma, he killed my pa, but I will vote for him.” In an election overseen by the United Nations’ peacekeeping mission, United Nations Observer Mission, along with a contingent from the Economic Community of West African States(ECOWAS), Mr. Taylor’s closest competitor, Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf won only 10 percent of the vote. Thirteen parties contested the ’97 elections.
’85, ’97 Fears Looming
Exactly 38 years after the ’85 elections and 26 years after the ’97 elections, new claims and counter claims in the buildup to the October elections are once more generating fears that a repeat of the ’85 scenario maybe about to play out amid fears that the upcoming elections may turn violent if urgent care is not taken to avert what may already be unfolding.
Last Thursday, tensions flared as supporters of the opposition Unity Party (UP) clashed with alleged backers of the ruling Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC) during a campaign rally, leaving several UP supporters injured and prompting accusations of foul play. The incident occurred as a convoy of UP supporters headed to the party’s campaign headquarters on the Airfield in District 9, aiming to kick off an event to announce their final campaign team. The UP alleges that a group of individuals wearing CDC insignia attacked some of their supporters, leading to a violent altercation that injured some of them. At least four persons were seriously injured.
The UP condemned the actions of the CDC and labeled them a “recipe for chaos.” They accused the ruling party of contravening the Farmington River Declaration, a pact signed by presidential candidates to ensure peaceful campaigning.
In response, the Weah-Taylor 2023 National Campaign Committee, representing the CDC, issued a statement denying the allegations. The committee clarified that their campaign activities had been pre-announced and were underway in other districts, well before the Unity Party’s event was planned.
The committee accused the Unity Party of deliberately scheduling their rally to provoke conflict and claimed they had adjusted their own campaign schedule to avoid clashes. They called on national and international bodies to intervene and ensure peaceful election proceedings.
Last week’s violence is triggering even more concerns amid chatters in recent weeks from both the ruling Coalition for Democratic Change and the opposition Unity Party projecting that they will clinch victory in the presidential polls in the first round – even with twenty candidates contesting the presidency when votes are expected to be splintered across the field.
JNB, Weah Predict 1st Round Win
The chatters have already grabbed the attention of international stakeholders. One foreign diplomat told FrontPageAfrica at the weekend that the US Embassy in Liberia have already notified senior Liberian Government ministers and members of the Weah Campaign Team as well as the Unity Party team, that a first-round victory for any of the presidential candidates seems unlikely in the crowded field of 20.
During an interview with the Voice of America last week, Mr. Boakai trumpeted “ We have never been the ones looking for a second. One round is what UP and other collaborators are looking for. They know very well that the Weah government is a no-go-forward for Liberia,” he said. “I believe [this is] what will make Weah [lose the election] so that the country [would] begin to see improvement, growth, and development.”
The incumbent Weah and his supporters have also claimed that they would win the elections in the first round.
Diplomats are however alarmed that in the unlikely event that President Weah wins a first-round victory, it would appear as rigging took place, just as it was alleged in 1985 and 1997. Similarly, the diplomat alarmed that opposition parties raising the expectations of their supporters with similar claims is a dangerous trend.
Diplomats are concerned that the vaunted first round victory being propounded ahead of October may have good intentions of rallying the base of political parties but could also raise expectations with negative consequences. “In effect, they are being asked to tread lightly,” the diplomat speaking strictly on condition of anonymity said at the weekend.
Pro Temp Chie Unsure About 1st Ballot Win
Last week, Senate Pro-Temp Albert Chie, a staunch supporter of President Weah cast doubt on the possibility of President George Weah securing a first-round victory in October. Chie, a ranking member of the governing party, cited the crowded field of candidates as a significant hindrance to Weah winning the election outright in the first round. Chie noted that while the election might go to the second round, Weah would emerge as the victor as his government has “done extremely well. “The Liberian people will re-elect us. We have done 85 percent of the people’s wishes,” Chie, who is up for reelection in Grand Kru County, said on Monday. “All governments are humans and liable to mistakes, but overall, we are doing well. But I can’t tell if it will be one round. The economy has some challenges, oh! Yes, but that’s not unique to Liberia. Looking at all the indicators and indexes, we are doing well. All currencies around the world have depreciated against the mighty dollar,’’ he added.
The Senator remains adamant that the current economic challenges, which have led to a budget shortfall and delay in public sector work security, will not affect the reelection chances of Weah, even though the election, according to Chie, might not be won in the first round.
Chie emphasized that the current political scenario will lead to a divided vote, making it challenging for any single candidate to secure the required majority in the first round of voting — which will then necessitate a runoff election.
The Last two times, a Political Party Won On A First Ballot In Liberia elections, it resulted into full scale civil wars – and a state of uncertainty for Africa’s oldest republic. The Disputed 1985 elections won by Samuel K. Doe was followed by an Invasion by Coup Plotters under the command of major General Thomas G. Quiwonkpa, Which Triggered The Events Of The Liberian Civil War That Killed Nearly A Quarter Million People And Sent Scores of Others Into Exile. Similarly, the aftermath of the 1997 elections that brought rebel leader Charles Ghankay Taylor to power also resulted in years of uncertainty and civil conflicts that led to more deaths, chaos, destruction, leading to the forced removal and exile of Mr. Taylor under immense international pressure. Thirty-Eight years later, chatters, claims and counterclaims by the current ruling establishment and some opposition parties, confidently declaring victory on the first ballot in the upcoming elections, are resurrecting fears of Liberia’s recent ugly past, one that many appear to have already forgotten.
“The CDC-led Government has done extremely well, and as such, it would be re-elected at the October polls come what may.
Chie noted that Weah will defeat any party or any coalition that comes its way, but not in the first round as some people may expect.
The Senator’s remarks may, however, not go down well with supporters of the President who believe a first-round victory is certain.
Diplomatic Observers Concern
Political observers say a first-round victory seems unlikely for any of the candidates.
For example, in 2017, Weah came first placed at 38.37 percent in the first round, while Joe Boakai came in second at 28.76 percent, winning just one county, his hometown of Lofa. The late Charles Walker Brumskine place at 9.62 percent, Prince Johnson at 8.22 percent and Alexander Cummings at 7.21 percent. Those results were seemingly at the height of Mr. Weah’s popularity and with no record of governance. However, over the last five years, Mr. Weah’s administration has come under attack for several lapses, including corruption with three of his officials sanctioned by the United States Government and friction with the international community on diverting donor monies.
Political observers say, President Weah’s record seems unlikely to produce a first round victory and also due to the fact that the coalition that included the National Patriotic Party(NPP) and the Liberia People’s Democratic Party(LPDP) is fractured beyond repair, with key members supporting other candidates.
Stalwarts of the coalition, including James Biney and Alex Tyler no longer support Mr. Weah, and more importantly, Prince Y. Johnson is now robustly supporting Unity Party’s Boakai, and his mentor, Jeremiah Koung is on the ticket. For the first time in Liberia’s postwar democratic dispensation, two sons of Nimba are on the presidential tickets of two political parties, with noted human rights lawyer, Cllr. Tiawon Gongloe himself contesting the presidency. This clearly indicates that Nimbaians will play favorite to both of their sons in October, meaning the votes in the vote-rich county could likely be evenly split across the board with 20 candidates on the ballot for the presidency.
Nimba, being the second in population and registered voters has determined the margin of victory for all the presidential elections in Liberia’s postwar elections and many political observers say, there is no reason why the county will not play that role in the 2023 elections.
Thus while it may be a good campaign slogan for the incumbent Weah and the opposition looking to stake their claim and replace him, to rally their bases and inspire confidence in his supporters as a first round victory seem highly unlikely and even in the event that occurs, it could evoke specter of cynicism and provoke serious dissension within the Opposition, in fact rallying Weah’s adversaries to a common cause of protesting that result. The case of Sierra Leone should be instructive.
Fearing S. Leone, Niger Mimic
Following last month’s election, the country’s main opposition party on attacked the credibility of a poll that saw incumbent President Ernest Bai Koroma elected to a second term in an outright first-round victory.
Bio, 59, was re-elected with 56.17 percent of the vote. His top rival Samura Kamara, of the All People’s Congress (APC), came second with 41.16 percent in an election, European election observers concluded was marred by “statistical inconsistencies” in the presidential results published by the electoral commission, which declared Bio the winner.
With less than two months to voting day, much emphasis appear to be centered on election security and how Liberia’s latest attempt at continuing its post-war democratic sojourn will play out; a sojourn that has already seen a democratic transition from one government to the next, but one which inevitably has the markings of a litmus test for the immediate political future of Africa’s oldest republic.
Lurking in the wind, is the reality that a fragile West Africa, is already dealing with crisis in Niger, where the Economic Community of West is threatening a forceful intervention to restore democracy following the ouster of President Mohamed Bazoum by General Abdourahmane Tchiani.
In a new twist, Russia has warned that any intervention by ECOWAS would lead to “protracted confrontation”. ECOWAS had issued a deadline to Niger’s military for the restoration of democracy that expired last Sunday. Following the expiration, the bloc put a force on standby. The bloc says it is open to a diplomatic solution but a military intervention is on the table. The mobilization with the standby order has also raised the stakes.
The Sahel region, in which Niger is located, is infested with a raging jihadist movement and insurgency where Al Qaeda- and ISIS-affiliated groups are active. Countries like Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali have been highly affected by the jihadist violence.
This is why the outcome of Liberia’s Presidential and legislative elections are so important for a fragile region already bruising and recovering from previous wars in Liberia and Sierra Leone which resulted in outpour of refugees across the region.
For Liberia’s immediate future, the October elections will set the pace for what’s to come even amid chatters of first-round claims by both incumbent and opposition.
For Cllr. Tiawon Gongloe, a noted Human Rights lawyer, who is also on the ballot for the Liberian presidency, declarations of first-round victory in a field of 20 candidates, the end simply doesn’t justify the means and is a bit premature, perhaps hurtful to Liberia’s democracy.