Monrovia – Liberians head to the polls on Tuesday, October 10 in a historic election that will see the country conducting its fourth consecutive democratic elections after returning from years of civil wars.
By Selma Lomax, [email protected]
It is an election where the stakes are so high with the incumbent President George Weah of the Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC) is hoping for re-election, while former Vice President Joseph Nyumah Boakai of Unity Party (UP) is putting up a stiff challenge, followed by other candidates including Alexander Cummings of the Collaborating Political Parties (CPP), Human Rights lawyer, Cllr. Tiawan Gongloe and others making it a total of twenty presidential candidates vying for the one slot.
From the months of heated political campaigns, political pundits say the presidential election appear to be a three-horse race between Weah, Boakai and Cummings.
During the 2017 presidential election that ushered Weah to power, the former soccer star won an unprecedented fourteen counties out of the total fifteen counties during the run-off but the variables of 2017 appear to have changed dramatically and the odds shifted against Weah and the ruling CDC in some of the biggest counties known for deciding who wins the presidency.
FrontPageAfrica now looks at the counties that are known in Liberia as the swing states because no candidate has ever won these counties with considerable votes margin and fail to win the presidency. How the six biggest and vote rich counties –Monsterrado, Bong, Margibi, Nimba, Lofa and Grand Bassa – are expected to vote come Tuesday is a big question lingering, but judging from the outcomes of 2005, 2011 and 2017 elections, it is a bit easier to determine how the votes in these counties will go. Holding all constant that political numbers are not exact, the margin or percentages can be likely determined from the ongoing political variables.
The National Elections Commission was unable to publish the Final Registration Roll (FRR) at various magisterial offices to enable voters have access to the listing in line with law as accordingly NEC provided the listing with less than a week to elections to the political parties.
NEC has published the Voter Registration final figures on its website, indicating that there is a total of 2,471,617 at all of the 2,080 voting precincts and 5,890 polling places across the country.
MONSTERRADO COUNTY:
Montserrado is always dubbed the major decider in any presidential elections in Liberia because it is where majority of the voting population lives. Based on rural to urban migration, Montserrado County is densely populated and accounts for close to forty percent of the total registered voters. According to NEC, Montserrado has total of 901,162 eligible voters with 457,049 females and 444,113 males.
Until the 2020 Special Senatorial election, Montserrado has been a stronghold of the CDC, with the party winning all the senatorial seats in the county since 2005, as well as obtaining more votes in the presidential race than any other candidates.
In 2005, CDC won the two senatorial seats for Montserrado County, Joyce Musu Freeman Sumo and Hannah Brent. When Senator Brent died, the CDC produced another Senator in Geraldine Doe Sheriff.
Even with these Senators not well known in their previous capacities prior to contesting on CDC ticket, the party always produced a senator for Montserrado County out of nowhere based on its strength in Montserrado County.
In successive legislative and presidential elections, the CDC has always maintained the upper hand in Montserrado County but that variables appeared to have changed suddenly during the 2020 Special Senatorial Election where even with the CDC fielding a popular candidate in Thomas Fallah who has been serving as a member of the House of Representatives for one of the most popular electoral districts in Montserrado County, Electoral District #5, candidate Fallah was heavily defeated by Abraham Darius Dillion of the Collaborating Political Parties (CPP).
The huge spending spree of the CDC coupled with incumbency factor and President Weah forming a part of the campaign team for the election of Thomas Fallah did not help CDC to hold on to its stronghold during the senatorial election. Candidate Fallah was even referred to as the “ATM machine” based on the campaign spending spree but yet the CDC was defeated massively for the first time since 2005.
The outcome of the 2020 Special senatorial election was a worrying sign for the CDC and now moving to the Presidential election, political observers say with Weah himself on the ballot it could be something different from that of Thomas Fallah for the Senate race, even though Weah and CDC had in the past pushed other unknown individuals to legislative seats in Montserrado County.
Whatever may have been the political variables over the last few years, Montserrado County is likely to turn a “Blue State” on Tuesday with incumbent Weah winning more votes in the county but that margin may likely not be like previous years. All presidential candidates are likely to win votes in Montserrado County and thus this may reduce the numbers for the incumbent, and could create a hectic task for the CDC to fight for votes from other counties if the party is to make the second round should there be any.
NIMBA COUNTY
Nimba County is the second largest county in terms of eligible voters, according to the Final Registration Roll released by the NEC. The county has a total of 307,254 eligible voters. Nimba County is likely to be one of the problematic counties for the CDC. Political history has shown that incumbent Senator Prince Y. Johnson is a deciding factor in getting votes from Nimba County. This was shown during the 2005, 2011, 2017 Presidential elections in Liberia.
The ruling CDC has never won Nimba County in any presidential elections until the run-off election in 2017 when the support of Prince Johnson delivered Nimba to the CDC, completely breaking down the Unity Party.
Before the current elections, the CDC and Senator Johnson parted ways, which was the start of a political nosedive for CDC in Nimba County. The defining political moment arrived when Boakai announced Senator Jeremiah K. Koung as his running mate. The Nimba Senator had won two successive elections as a member of the House of Representatives in a populated electoral District in Nimba County, which was followed by his election as a Senator in 2020.
A collaboration of Senators Johnson and Koung’s support for the Boakai/Koung ticket coupled with Koung’s own involvement in the politics of Nimba County over the years will prove very costly for the CDC. However, the presence of Gongloe, a native of Nimba County, could make things difficult for the both the CDC and the UP.
BONG COUNTY
Bong County has a total of 234,787 eligible voters, as per NEC records, and this is one of the counties that is likely to be a battleground state with no party certain of a commanding victory over the other. Bong has the incumbent Vice President in Jewel Howard Taylor who has also shown political strength in the county since 2005. The incumbent Vice President is likely to provide some strong fight for the CDC in the county. Her main opponent in the scramble for votes in the county is Senator Prince Moye was very brutal in his assessment of the vice president when he appeared on local radio stations recently where he described her as a “total stranger” to the county.
Even with these political assertions, Vice President Taylor has always pull the votes trigger in Bong County. With President Weah promising that should he get re-elected after serving his second term he would support Jewel for the Presidency, voters from Bong County could see this as an opportunity to produce a president in the next six years should the CDC win a second term.
Unlike the votes from Montserrado and Nimba counties that are not very difficult to predict, Bong County is where possible political surprises could evolve. The likely winner of the votes from Bong County may not win with a comfortable margin as it is predicted that the county will be a tight race between CDC and UP.
If Bong County turns ‘’Blue’’ it will be a massive boost for the CDC and on the other hand should Bong goes ‘’Green’’, the UP will be in a very comfortable position.
MARGIBI COUNTY
Margibi is another big county that is expected to play a key role in deciding the presidency. During the 2017 general and presidential elections, the CDC won the county during the first round and also the run-off.
With the county having a total of 185,301 eligible voters, it is highly likely that the ruling CDC could gather more votes in the county. A senatorial candidate in person of Nathaniel McGill of the CDC is making some strong gains in the county, coupled with several other lawyers who are from the CDC. Margibi does not look much different from Montserrado County in terms of support for the CDC but besides results from 2017, in previous elections, Margibi has not really shown strong numbers for the CDC.
The current campaign has seen Margibians (natives of the county) showing up in good numbers for the Unity Party during campaign rallies and other political events. Like Bong County, Margibi is difficult to predict but the numbers might slightly shrink in favor of the CDC but it will be a tight contest. Any political party winning the votes in Margibi County might not be sure of a massive win as the contest will be so close to call.
LOFA COUNTY
There is uncertainty regarding whether Lofa County, one of Liberia’s most populous and vote-rich counties, will continue to fully support the Unity Party (UP), as it did during the 2005, 2011 and 2017 General and Presidential Elections. The 2017 election, especially, was significant as it marked the first post-war democratic transition of power from the leadership of Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and Amb. Joseph N. Boakai of the UP to Senators George Manneh Weah and Jewel Howard Taylor of the Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC).
During the first round of the 2017 elections in Lofa, 123,203 of the 167,427 registered voters cast ballots, of which 116,365 were valid. Joseph Boakai of the UP received 91,324 votes, or 78.48% while George Weah of the CDC received 8,194 votes, or 7.04%. Additionally, 96,683 people participated in the runoff election in December 2017. Joseph Boakai of the Unity Party won with 79,258, or 84.21%, of the total valid votes cast, while George Weah of the CDC received 14,860, or 15.79%.
It has been nearly six years since the UP, led by candidate Boakai, dominated Lofa County across all five electoral districts in both the first-round and runoff elections. It is also approximately seven months until Liberia witnesses and participates in another round of democratic elections in which President George Weah of the CDC seeks reelection and Joseph Boakai of the UP also runs for President.
Despite the fact that Weah’s CDC did not obtain the requisite outcomes in the 2017 elections, it is no secret that the CDC has employed a number of strategies to lessen the Unity Party’s influence in Lofa. As the UP strongly campaigns on the traditional politics of “Uncle and Nephew” and the CDC campaigns on the politics of “Talk and Do,” it is obvious that the debate over who will lead Lofa on October 2023 has intensified ahead of October 10,2023 elections.
Arguably, the 2022 Senatorial By-Election was the first time since the 2017 elections that the Unity Party’s capabilities in Lofa County were put to the test. Unfortunately, the Unity Party’s Galakpai Kortamai was defeated by the CDC-backed Senatorial Candidate Joseph K. Jallah with 22,019 votes to 21,229, a difference of 790 votes.
In spite of Amb. Joseph N. Boakia’s vigorous involvement and campaigning during the 2022 senate by-election, the UP was unable to maintain its majority in those electoral districts where it had entire control during the 2017 elections.
In the first district, where former vice president Boakai is from, the UP received 16,560 votes in the 2017 elections, or 86% of all valid votes, but in the 2022 Senate by-elections, the UP struggled to win 5,543 votes, or 50.34% of all valid votes, while the CDC’s supported candidate obtained 5,017 votes, or 45.56%. Additionally, in District 2, where the UP received 16,737 votes, or 77.64% of the vote, in 2017, it was defeated by the CDC-backed candidate in the 2022 Senate elections. Galakpai Kortamai of the Unity Party received 2,858 votes, or 28.39% of the total valid votes, while Joseph Jallah received 4,526, or 44.95%.
Furthermore, in district number three, where the UP received 17,710 votes or 84.42% in 2017, it lost to the CDC-backed candidate in the 2022 Senatorial by-elections. Jallah received 8,139 votes, or 65.44% of the valid votes cast, while Kortamai of the UP received 2,524 votes, or 20.29%. In District 4, where the UP received 21,196 votes or 73.23% in 2017, the UP maintained its district strength by winning with 4,730 votes or 34.55% in 2022, while the CDC-backed candidate received 2,179 votes or 15.92%. In district five, the UP received 19,121 votes or 74.57% in the 2017 elections, while in the 2022 Senatorial by-elections, Kortamai of the UP received 5,574 votes or 42.27%, while Jallah of the CDC received 2,158 votes or 16.37%.
These recent events in Lofa are a blatant sign that the Unity Party still has a lot of work to do if they want to keep supremacy over Lofa County. Recent opinion polls show that the CDC is functioning well, and if it keeps doing what it is, the UP’s domination would be gone.
To date, the Foyah Statutory District, where the political leader of the Unity Party resides, was the first of Lofa’s administrative and political districts to petition George Weah to run for re-election, while the Voinjama Administrative District honored and named him “Kolubah,” which is Lorma for “strong man” or “messenger.”
If everything keeps going in the CDC’s favor without any challenge from the Unity Party, it will be difficult, if not impossible, for the UP to maintain its hold on Lofa County at the elections in October 2023 as it did in 2017.
GRAND BASSA
Grand Bassa is one of the biggest counties in terms of eligible voters. With total eligible voters of 158,463, it is one of the counties where its main political godfather Cllr. Charles W. Brumskine is late leaving a huge vacuum. The daughter of Cllr. Brumskine has stepped in to replace her father, contesting as Vice Presidential candidate to Alexander Cummings of the CPP. In Cllr. Charlyne Brumskine, Grand Bassa sees one of their kind and it is likely that the county might go for the CPP even though not with a very wide margin as compare to other counties. There are factors Senator Nyonblee K. Lawrence, who is one of the campaign persons for the Unity Party. Even with the presence of Cllr. Charles Brumskine, the CDC had always pulled good numbers from Grand Bassa and that factor is likely to be the same with CDC still getting some good numbers from the county.
Bookmakers might go for CPP wining Grand Bassa County but with a wide margin followed by the CDC and the Unity Party in third.
Combined six South eastern counties with 307,265 eligible voters comprising of Grand Gedeh (63,942); Grand Kru (42,396); Maryland (67,600)’; Rivergee (37,807); Rivercess (39,941) and Sinoe (55,579).
Just as Lofa County is to Boakai and Nimba County now to Jeremiah Koung, the South eastern part of the country has shown unity in voting for the CDC. From 2005 to now, no political party has won the CDC in these South eastern counties, with the exception of 2017 when Alexander Cummings and the Alternative National Congress put up a strong fight in Maryland County.
The current election is likely to just be a minor shift from the previous because Jeremiah Koung holds paternal route from the South East and Koung took the campaign to the CDC by visiting all the counties in the South east and making important donations. The best guess is that the CDC is likely to win five of the six south eastern counties like the party has done in past elections.
The Cummings factor in Maryland County and Senator James Biney factor could reduce the CDC votes in that county to a larger extent. Koung also took a strong campaign message to the entire south east indicating that the current Government has the President, Speaker and Senate Pro temp of that region but the region remains underdeveloped and its people impoverished which was a very strong campaign message that could resonate with the voters.
The best bet is that Cummings could win Maryland County, while CDC could win the remaining five south eastern counties but not with a wide margin as was done in 2017 due to the Cummings, Biney factor.