CAPE TOWN– Liberia is bracing for a historic surge in iron ore production, with output expected to triple to around 30 million metric tons this year.
By Jaheim T. Tumu, [email protected]
The expansion is driven by ArcelorMittal Liberia’s ramp‑up and a wave of new entrants, Mines Minister Matenokay Tingban disclosed at the African Mining Indaba conference.
Last year, the country produced about 10 million tons, almost entirely from ArcelorMittal, its dominant operator.
Now, Luxembourg‑based ArcelorMittal is investing in a new concentrator and sweeping rail and port upgrades. The company announced it plans to ship 20 million tons of iron ore from Liberia in 2026, a dramatic rise from historic levels of around 5 million tons per annum.
“The railway is being expanded toward 30 million tons per annum capacity for AML under a new, long‑term agreement that also pays the government $200 million in fees,” Tingban said, underscoring the infrastructure backbone of the expansion to Reuters news.
New Entrants Bolster the Sector
Iron ore prices spiked in 2025 as China’s record imports tightened the global market. Liberia is positioning itself to ride that wave.
“This year, ArcelorMittal should be hitting 20 million tons,” Tingban said. “We expect Liberia to reach between 25 and 30 million tons once all producers come online.”
Among those producers are Cavalla Resources, Westcrest and Zodiac, all slated to start operations this year, while Bao Chico resumes production. The minister added that gold output is also set to rise, with Mansa Resources’ Dugbe mine ramping up.
In parallel, the Liberia Geological Survey has been tasked to catalogue new critical‑mineral targets. Chinese geochemical studies have already detected signs of lithium and other strategic elements, opening the door to diversification beyond iron ore.
Mining Code Overhaul
The production surge comes as Liberia prepares to rewrite its mining law. Tingban said a new mining code is expected within three months, introducing changes to licensing and creating a framework for a national mining company to take equity stakes.
“The core fiscal shift introduces free‑carried state equity of 10%–15% per project, with a long‑term target of 25%,” he explained. “We are moving from a royalty‑only approach to equity participation to maximize returns, fund infrastructure and create jobs.”
Royalty rates will remain at 4.5% for iron ore and 3% for gold, while heavy mineral sands will be set at 8%. Whether the new equity terms apply to existing projects will be determined by the Ministry of Justice. The reforms and new entrants converging, Tingban projected a sharp rise in mining’s contribution to national output.
“With all this, we expect overall mining output to increase from 15% (in 2024) to as high as 50% depending on how fast new producers come online,” he said.
ArcelorMittal’s investment underscores the confidence of major international operators in Liberia’s potential. The company’s rail and port upgrades are not only critical for its own operations but also for other producers who may rely on shared infrastructure.
Looking Ahead
The coming months will test Liberia’s ability to deliver on its ambitious targets. The ramp‑up of ArcelorMittal’s concentrator, the onboarding of new producers, and the implementation of a revised mining code will all shape the trajectory of the sector. Success could mean a dramatic transformation of Liberia’s economic landscape, with mining output rising from modest levels to a dominant share of national revenues.
