Introduction:
On October 10, 2023, Liberians will head to the polls to vote in general and presidential elections, in which 72 representatives and 14 senators as well as, President George Weah and Vice President Jewel Howard Taylor are seeking re-elections.
By James P. Kwabo, Jr BA, MPA, Chief Executive Officer, Alternative Youth Radio, Zorzor, Lofa County.
As a result, there are 1,030 people competing for 89 open positions. Only 159 of these applicants (15%) are female, while 871 (85%) are male. There are a total of 831 candidates, including 199 (19%) who are not affiliated with any political party, coalition, or alliance.
In Lofa County, norther Liberia, there are fifty-two people running for six parliamentary seats. Seven of the fifty-two candidates are seeking Senate seats, while the remaining forty-five are vying for House seats. One Senator and five Representatives would be elected by the conclusion of the day on October 10, 2023, while forty-six would be predicted to lose.
According to the National Election Commission’s final tally, 2,471,617 Liberians across the country’s fifteen counties are registered to vote. There are currently 1,237,257 female registered voters and 1,234,360 male registered voters.
There are a total of 177,055 registered voters in Lofa County, who are spread out among the county’s five voting districts. A total of 39,828 people are registered to vote in District 1, 26,701 in District 2, 29,576 in District 3, 43,042 in District 4, and 37,908 in District 5.
It’s no secret that in Lofa County elections, various factors—including your geopolitical allegiance, your tribal and traditional beliefs, your impact in the county, and your political affiliation—come into play in deciding who wins. Upper Lofa, which includes Electoral Districts 4 and 5, is home to all four of the leading Senate candidates in the upcoming October 10, 2023 elections. These candidates are Incumbent Stephen Zargo of the Unity Party, Chief Moses Y. Kollie of the Coalition for Democratic Change, Mr. Galakpai Kortamai, an independent, and Momo Cyrus, an independent. There are 80,950 registered voters in this area, compared to 96,105 in all of Lower Lofa (which includes Districts 1-3).
Three of the four leading candidates (Zargo, Kortamai, and Cyrus) are members of the Lorma tr ibe, while one is a member of the Kpelleh tribe (Kollie).
In this analysis, we look into greater detail on the prospects of the four leading Senatorial candidates: the incumbent, Stephen Zargo; the former Director General of Liberia Civil Aviation Authority, Chief Moses Y. Kollie; the former Superintendent of Lofa, Galakpai W. Kortamai; and the Chief Executive Officer of the Security Experts Guard of Liberia, Mr. Momo Cyrus.
- CHIEF MOSES Y. KOLLIE-CDC
Basic Information:
Chief Moses Y. Kollie, is the current Acting Political Leader of the Liberia People Democratic Party (LPDP), a constituent member of the ruling Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC). His political standing in the county dates back to 2005 and 2011, when he was first elected and then re-elected as the Representative of electoral District Four, now District Five, which includes the Zorzor and Salayea Administrative Districts.
Since its founding in 2004, Kollie’s “Friends of Moses Kollie (FOMK)” political movement has maintained a strong presence in all of the communities across Lofa county, allowing him to maintain political supremacy over his current challengers. Having contributed financially and morally to the funding of the Liberia People Democratic Party (LPDP) and played a significant role in the formation of the current Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC) and the election of now Senator Cllr. Joseph K. Jallah in 2022, couple with his perceived tolerance and good interpersonal relationship, he has earned the respect of many residents of all five of Lofa County’s electoral districts.
Kollie presently employs a number of Liberians, most of whom are from Lofa County, on his around 250 acres of farmland in Ganglota, and his rubber farms on the Zolowo and Tinsue roads all in the Salayea Administrative District of Lofa County. His Genuine Group of Companies in Margibi and Montserrado Counties, as well as his ELMO Event Palace in Paynesville, have been lauded for offering extra employment opportunities for Lofians even in Monrovia.
Many qualified Lofians accordingly, were given the opportunity to find gainful employment at the Ministry of Labour and the Liberia Civil Aviation Authority during his tenure as Minister of Labour (2018-2020) and Director General (2020-2023). However, Kollie is being praised for his massive investment in capacity development supports for many young people in Lofa, from those in secondary schools up to those in colleges, universities, and professional schools.
Chances OF BEING elected:
When deciding who will represent Lofa County in national elections, many factors, including tribal and geopolitical alignments, political party affiliation, the candidate’s personal results, and the importance of the position, are considered.
In light of these circumstances, it is widely believed that Chief Moses Y. Kollie could unseat Stephen Zargo as senator in the upcoming elections on October 10, 2023.
Three of the four leading candidates (Momo Cyrus, Glakapai Kortamai, and Stephen Zargo) for Senate in Lofa are not only from the same region (upper Lofa) but also belong to the same tribal group, while Moses despite from the same Upper Lofa but, is the only candidate from the Kpelleh region, which is cantered primarily in the Salayea Administrative District of electoral district number five and has a total of 15,189 registered voters.
People in the Mandingo chiefdom (Quadu Gboni) of Lofa County, where there are currently 14,150 registered voters, are similarly convinced that Moses will profit from their support. CDC, the FOMK, and CDC’s Representative Candidate Sekou B. Kolleh are all believed to be in a more comfortable position to sway the votes of Quadu Gboni in favour of Moses and those supported by the CDC.
In addition, the presence of Senator Joseph K. Jallah, the CDC’s Representative Candidate in District Three (Mr. Momo Kpoto), as well as the FOMK would eventually propel Kollie to a commendable position within the Gbandi Chiefdom, just as the presence of Hon. Julie Wiah, Hon. Thomas P. Fallah, the FOMK, and the CDC would eventually lead him to an outstanding position of within Districts Two and One respectively.
The Unity Party’s present discord, in which some members are backing their previous candidate Glakapai Kortamai despite the party’s interest in incumbent Senator Stephen Zargo, might also work in Moses’ favour as the major opposition to the CDC in Lofa County is the UP.
If all of the aforementioned conditions still existed on October 10, 2023, Chief Moses Y. Kollie would have a 40% probability of being elected to the Senate.
- Momo Cyrus-Independent
Basic Information:
Momo Cyrus, an independent candidate, is believe to represent a new power dynamic in Lofa’s body politics. In the 2022 Special Senatorial Election (his maiden venture into Lofa politics), he received five thousand six hundred and eighty-seven (5,687) votes, or 9.55 % of the total sixty-two thousand five hundred and nineteen (62,519) turnout, and sixty thousand three hundred and ninety-four (60,394) valid ballots throughout the five electoral districts.
Even in the upcoming elections, Momo Cyrus is still one of the top competitors for the Senate seat. This is due to the fact that in 2022, his first year running for office, he came in at number four out of six candidates in Lofa’s election. That election saw him garner a vote of 1,676 in the lower Lofa region (Districts 1-3) while he got 4,011 from the Upper Lofa region (Districts four and five).
It is no doubt that, in a relatively short amount of his time in Lofa’s politics, Cyrus has a bit shifted the balance of power from the newcomer to the influential, winning the minds of other Lofa citizens particularly young voters. He could count on backing from the Mandingo Chiefdom, if he gets the endorsement of Representative Miriamu B. Fofana who is also seeking third term as Representative and will need an influential candidate like Cyrus from the Lorma region to market her as well. In the Kpelleh Chiefdom, Cyrus also stands a good chance of coming in second if the techniques used in 2022 repeat again.
Although he has failed to deliver on many of the material and financial promises he made during the 2022 election, he is still known as the “Money Carton” since he made the most lavish campaign promises at the time. Only a small fraction of these to current has been kept so far.
Cyrus, a young man who is optimistic about the future of Lofa, has been involved in a number of ways, including leading the County to its first two trophies (football and kickball) since Lofa’s founding in 1964 and the beginning of Liberia’s National County Sports Meet. From empowering women and adolescents through micro-loans and education to bolstering the County’s development agenda and mediating possible conflicts, his work for the County, primarily in the Voinjama District, where he was born and reared, has had a significant influence on his current and possible political future.
Chances of being elected:
The fact that three formidable Lorma candidates—including Momo Cyrus, incumbent Senator Stephen Zargo, and Glakapai Kortamai—are all from the same Upper Lofa region further works against him. As a result, the issues that plagued Cyrus in 2022 have reappeared in 2023. To make matters worse for Cyrus in the impending elections on October 10, 2023, the current Senator, Stephen Zargo, is also from Cyrus’s home district of Voinjama Administrative District.
Cyrus may have an uphill battle in Lofa County, where the incumbent Senator is running on the UP ticket and the former Director General of the Liberia Civil Aviation Authority is running on the CDC ticket considering what had happened between the UP and CDC’s quest for supremacy.
In 2022, for example, out of 11,012 votes cast in district one, Cyrus received 173 votes, or 1.57%, while the candidates backed by the CDC, Joseph K. Jallah, obtained 5,017 votes, or 45.56%, and the UP, Glakapai Kortamai, received 5,543 votes, or 50.34%. In addition, of the total 10,068 valid votes cast, the CDC and UP candidates in District 2 earned 4,524 (or 44.95%) and 2,858 (or 28.39%), respectively; Cyrus garnered 626 (or 6.22%). There were 12,438 votes cast for the District 3 seat, with Cyrus receiving 877 (7.05%), the CDC candidate receiving 8,139 (65.44%), and the UP candidate receiving 2,524 (20.29%). This suggests Cyrus’s lower-area performance wasn’t as great as his Upper Lofa region work. Then, the forces of the CDC versus the UP that are working against him are largely unaltered.
Also, a large portion of the material and financial pledges Cyrus made during the 2022 election have not been fulfilled, but he is still regarded as the “Money Carton” because he made the most extravagant campaign promises at the time. Many people think that if he were to appear at public forums, these promises would be key topics of questioning, and failing to fully answer them would hurt his chances.
There is a 25% chance that Momo Cyrus will be elected to the Senate if the current trends continue until October 10, 2023.
- Glakapai W. Kortamai-Independent
Basic Information:
Glakapai W. Kortamai, a former Unity Party candidate, came in second in a Senate by-election in 2022. In all of Lofa County’s five voting districts, he received 36.46 % of the legitimate votes, or 21,229.
Kortamai’s second-place finish in the 2022 elections was due in large part to the support of Samukai and the Unity Party, which was bolstered by the public campaigning of former Vice President Joseph N. Boakai. Kortamai received 10,925 votes in the lower lofa region thanks to the UP VS CDC’s competition, while he received 10,304 votes in the Upper region.
Kortamai was a prominent member of the Unity Party and the Superintend of Lofa County from 2006 to late July 2012 before he was fired as Deputy GSA Director in June 2014.
In 2014, he ran against Senator Sumo G. Kupee as a candidate for the Congress for Democratic Change (CDC), which he had joined after being fired by former President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf As a CDC’s candidate, he came in sixth place with 3,570 votes out of a total of 48,812. In late 2017, he again resigned from the CDC and re-joined the Unity Party. In late 2020 he was named interim Chairman of the UP in Lofa County, a position he held until 2023, when he again resigned to run as an independent candidate against the UP’s nominee for Senate, incumbent Stephen Zargo.
Kortamai has built strong, relationships across the county, especially in Voinjama, where it has access to a sizable Lorma community. Brownie J. Samuka, a former Convicted Défense Minister, and his devoted followers still retain faith in Kortamai, which many believe they used to convince him to quit from the UP and run as an independent contrary to the interest of the UP.
Chances of being elected.
Despite the Unity Party’s decision to place Stephen Zargo on its ticket, some Unity Partisans continue to support Kortamai because they are dissatisfied with the selection. Kortamai confronts a three-way vote split with Cyrus and Zargo in the Upper Lofa, which is dominated by the Lorma. From the perspective of the Unity Party’s support base, He also confronts a two-way vote split with He and Zargo.
As a result, Moses and Cyrus stand to benefit from the Unity Party’s ongoing internal conflict over its preference for Zargo over Kortamai, which is detrimental to both Zargo and Kortamai.
It is no doubt that the Lorma factor, which hampered Kortamai’s chances in 2022, is back against him again. Also, the UP is fielding its own candidate (Zargo), meaning that all party officials who were instrumental in ensuring Kortamai’s influence that led him to second place will now be required by the party to campaign for Zargo instead of Kortamai. This could diminish Kortamai’s support in areas he previously won in 2022 due to his presence on the Unity Party’s ticket.
Even though a large number of individual votes are cast in Lofa elections, the significance of the UP versus the CDC’s factors cannot be denied. Due to his refusal to support the party’s interest when it came to Francis Carbah in 2014 and now Zargo in 2023, some people believe that Kortamai lacks party discipline and would go to any extent to undermine his party’s interests to satisfy his personal desires. This would be another challenge to Kortamai quest of becoming Senator.
If these conditions persist until the 10th of October, 2023, Glakapai W. Kortamai has a 20% probability of being elected to the Senate.
Senator Stephen Zargo
In 2014, current incumbent Senator Stephen Zargo was elected on the Liberty Party’s ticket with the help of the late Eugene Fallah Kparkar. Out of a total of 48,812 valid votes cast, Senator Zargo received 12,797 votes, or 26.2%, beating out eight other candidates, one of whom was Glakapai Kortamai.
Zargo made his first entry into the Lofa politics with 2011 receiving 13,536, or 14.81 % of the 91,401 valid votes. He came in second to former Senator George Tengbeh of the Unity Party who obtained the total votes of 21,914 or 23.98%.
As Senator, Zargo has risen to prominence. He is the Liberian Senate’s representative in the ECOWAS parliament, and he also chairs the committee on National Security, Défense, and Intelligence. Arguably, Zargo has helped improve Lofa County in a number of ways, including by providing financial and academic support to a variety of organizations in the county’s health, youth, and student services, education, and security sectors.
Also, after being elected in 2014, Zargo immediately started building a large dorm complex for what was then Lofa County Community College but is now Lofa County University. This project far from being completed.
Given the current political arrangements between the Unity Party and the disputed Liberty fraction controlled by expelled political leader Nyonblee Kangar Lawrence, Zargo has emerged as the party’s candidate and stands to gain from an open campaign by other prominent members of the UP, such as former Vice President Joseph N. Boakai, District One to Four representative candidates, and UP’s leadership.
Chances of being elected:
Since 2005, Lofa county has not re-elected a Senator. Zargo, an incumbent Senator who has represented the people of Lofa for the past nine years (since 2014), may be the next victim of the practice among Lofa County’s electorate. Re-election candidates Fumbah Kanneh (2011), Sumo Kupee (2014), and George Tengbeh (2020) were all turned down as a result of this decision.
Zargo, like Kortamai and Cyrus, is a Lorma, and they all compete for the same votes in the same Upper Lofa area. His radio statements, in which he is heard urging Lofians to “not elect a Kpelleh person as Senator,” have been roundly criticized, both within and outside of Lofa County. Zargo’s standing in the Kpelleh Chiefdom may suffer as a result of this comment.
Despite the Unity Party’s support provided Zargo, Brownie Samukai and others have raised serious concerns about his candidacy, prompting them to nominate Glakapai Kortamai as an Independent Candidate to run against him. As the old adage goes, “the house divided against itself is bound to fall,” and Zargo and Kortamai competing over the same voters could end up helping Cyrus and Kollie.
If these conditions persist until October 10, 2023, Zargo’s chances of getting re-elected are estimated at 15%.