In politics, there remains a strange relationship people, power and money. And it seems that candidacy of Joseph Mills Jones highlights this strange relationship in a rather glaring and lucid manner.

I don’t know if you have noticed but whenever you pass around the National Headquarters of Mills Jones’ Movement for Economic Empowerment (MOVEE) you will see that the Liberty Party has taken over that piece of real estate and is now using it as parking lot for its numerous vehicles. MOVEE’s HQ is virtually dead with only security personnel occupying the building. For a Party that most people thought were a major contender for the presidency, this is a disgrace and a shame.

Let me remind you, just in case you have forgotten the entire issue of Code of Conduct was singularly intended to prevent Mills Jones from becoming President. That’s how powerful Mills Jones was when controlled the Central Bank and was very delusional that money could easily buy power. Mills Jones’ actions as Governor of the Central Bank of Liberia ran chill through the spine major political actors. However, it is important to mention that Mills Jones broke every professional ethics surrounding the office of the Governor of any central bank, the world over.

During Mills Jones’ second term as Governor of the Bank, some political actors deceived Mills Jones into believing that if he dished out money in a certain way, he could win the admiration, and by extension the political loyalty, of a cross section of society and this could lead him directly into the Executive Mansion. Off course this was an appealing proposition to Mills Jones especially since he would not be spending his own money to gain this purported notoriety and fame.

The plan was, under guise of empowering the domestic private sector, the Bank could design a program that would give huge Liberian dollar loans to grassroots people who would then see Governor Jones as an economic messiah and on the basis of that, he could launch a run for the presidency. The idea sounded appealing and Mills Jones jumped on it.

The way Theo Bettie (the late) designed the program and the subsequent political branding of Governor Jones was such that leaders of key business, trade, marketing, and grassroots organizations would be enlisted and the monies would be given to their members though them. I can vividly record the case of the Yana Boy Association in which all they needed to do was get an Article of Incorporation, Business Registration and a bank account. Once that was done, LD$5,000,000.00 was immediately deposited into their account. Whatever happened to that money remains a misery.

Mills Jones was furthered advised that all his messages should be populist in nature and all his appearances should have political undertone. Mills Jones began using Central Bank activities around the country as political rallies.

For the first time in the history of the world, we started seeing a sitting Central Bank Governor riding open top jeep, paying folks to line the roads whenever he was travelling, demanding all Bank employees to turn out to these programs, and organizing gowning and honoring programs.

Off course, D. Maxwell Kimayan of the Liberia Business Association (LIBA) saw the Mills Jones’ gravy train and jumped on it. Everyone knows that Kimayan’s ascendency to the presidency of the LIBA is an act of fraud because he never owned any business and was therefore never qualified to be part of LIBA.

But as a con artist, Kimayan can make his way anywhere. With the opportunity from Mills Jones, Kimayan seized the opportunity without any further thought because either way, Kimayan benefits from being the one controlling the loan program and then the political machinery. Kimayan walks away from his process an extremely wealthy man whether Mills Jones wins or loses.

But what is troubling is that Mills Jones should have known that all his life he had never focused on the ordinary people and politics is about people and their condition. Money, as important as it is, is not the only thing that people care about; people want more than just money. They want to know that their leaders understand their plight, care about them and respect them. People want leaders who they believe like them and look like them.

For Mills Jones, he has always felt better than the ordinary people. Mills has always looked down the ordinary people and despised them. Even in the neighborhood where Mills Jones lives, until he wanted to be President, he never spoke to anyone in that area. He never used his wealth to assist any of them or to impact the community in any significant way.

For Mills Jones to have jumped from the clear blue sky and think that he could be President of the Republic of Liberia simply because he used public monies to give to people was a terrible mistake of judgement and a misreading of the political history of the Republic.

Additionally, Mills Jones picks a running mate, Rev. Dr. Samuel B. Reeves of the Providence Baptist Church, who himself is not people centered person and could not even win re-election in his Church. For Mills Jones to have selected the reverend speaks volume as to who he really is. But more important, for the reverend to have accepted to run with Mills Jones was a betrayal to his Church, his Faith, and the messages he had preached over the years. Mills Jones happens to be the epitome of everything that Rev. Reeves has preached against over the years. But then again, as human as he is, Rev. Reeves might have thought that the vice presidency was too important a promotion in life to forgo.

Today, from everything we have seen, the “poverty doctor” is amongst the least of the candidates in the race. Mills Jones is not even able to keep his party HQ alive after boasting of enormous wealth and financial prowess. Well, maybe Crayton Duncan might have absconded with the Governor’s campaign resources but for Governor Jones to be struggling as he is, speaks volume. And if the Governor had resources, he would stay remain in the tier 3 category in the political race. Political leadership should have more to offer than money. People matter!

Robin Lee Tarpeh, Consultant and Strategist
robinleetarpeh@gmail.com

Our country and its nascent democracy is at great peril and if nothing is done, we risk a fall into the abyss of conflict and dysfunctionality. Every day we read in the newspapers or hear on the radio some version of a fallout or conflict between the President and her Vice President, whom she selected to replace her.

The story, as told, may not be 100% correct but the fact that there is some semblance of concern in those circles is troubling and terrifying, to say the least. The video posted on the FPA website in which the former Chairman of the Unity Party, Senator Varney Sherman, is seen venting his anger and frustration at the President is very dangerous.

That Senator Varney Sherman, who is very close to Joe Boakai, could come out in the public to say those things speak volume and raise many concerns as to what Joe Baokai is truly thinking. It would be impossible for Varney Sherman to make those utterances without the explicit approval of Joe Boakai and if that is what Joe Boakai is think about his boss, then the country is in serious trouble.

If Joe Boakai didn’t approve of the message by Varney Sherman, he could have promptly issued a rebuttal or clarification but from all indications, that’s Joe Baokai’s message.

And trust me, Madam President is reading deep into those messages and is truly preparing herself. At this point, I believe Madam President is working with her colleagues in the international community to ensure that she is protected from the diabolical plans of Joe Boakia, Varney Sherman and Associates. For the Unity Party to have such hatred and division within is a dangerous thing for the country.

The way such hatred and animosity get resolved could stall the country’s progress in the area of democratic governance as well as economic development. It means that the Unity Party will be settling scores for the first half of its term and nothing will get done. When nothing gets done, the ordinary people will continue to suffer. 

This is where I think a United Opposition can truly save the country and its democracy. Our people have suffered too long and we should not allow the bitterness and hatred amongst those who ruled for the last 12 years to hold our country back.

The United Opposition can come together and retire the Unity Party by ensuring that they don’t win the elections. The Unity Party seems like it needs time to go and sort out it differences and heal itself before they can recontest. 

If we make a mistake and give the country to a bunch a people who have clearly demonstrated that theirs is regime of settling scores, then we will throw our country backward another 100 years.

The civil war inside in the Unity Party should not be allowed to adversely affect the forward march of the country. Does anyone think that Madam Sirleaf will sit back and allow her Vice President of 12 years to undermine her “legacy”?

And will Varney Sherman and other folks like Wilmot Paye allow Madam Sirleaf and her son and sister (Robert and Aunite Jennie) to go free? 

The troubles inside the Unity Party run too deep but this is no reason for the country to suffer. These people were given 12 years as a Party and they could not mend fences and put their acts together to move the country forward. I don’t believe giving them another 6 years for the purpose of destroying one another and the country will help our people. 

The United Opposition is the last hope of the Liberian people. Though they are contesting the elections separately, they have an opportunity to commit to one another that in the second round, they will stick together and ensure that the Unity Party is not given the opportunity to further destroy the country.

I think that the opposition community should begin to take practical steps in documenting their commitment to this cause and agreeing that in the interest of the country that they all love, they will commit to stopping the Unity Party from securing a third term. 

The writings are on the wall that this civil war inside the Unity Party will not end well and therefore no need for the ordinary people who have been patiently waiting for their economic lots to improve to be victimized by vendetta and score settling. 

In my next article, I will demonstrate how a Third Term for the Unity Party will further destroy our democracy; but for now, I think the United Opposition needs to start the work of saving our dear country now.

Robin Lee Tarpeh, Contributing Writer
robinleetarpeh@gmail.com

I have scanned social media of late and I have observed that many Liberians seem to think that George Weah is the least capable of the candidates in the race. I don’t believe this is entirely true even though Weah does have some challenges and limitations.

However, I think those challenges are mainly related to articulation and oratory skills. But again, in politics, rhetoric and your ability to articulate your points are key ingredients to winning an election even though they are no proxy or indication of one’s ability to effective govern or lead. 

It is also very sad when the Weah supporters try to pretend that education is not important simply because they believe that Liberia have had educated leaders before and the country is still economically and developmentally challenged. While the Weah supporters may have a point, they are missing the trust of their own argument and thereby shooting themselves in the legs.

They are mistaken correlation with causation. It is unreasonable and ludicrous to say that education is not important. What is true is that former education and leadership are two different and separate things and that just because someone doesn’t have a PhD or doesn’t possess the same oratory skill as Martin Luther King means that they cannot lead. This reasoning is flawed and out rightly wrong because leadership is a skill that is far removed from oration. 

However, these are beside the point that I am trying to make. Reading from the first debate of the candidates, one can only wonder whether those who were on the stage are our best and brightest in our country because I found each of them wanting in several respects. None of them really showed that they have a grasp of the issues and how they would fix them.

Additionally, the moderators did us enormous injustice when they were very weak in their ability to follow up properly so that those who wanted to make up their minds from the debate could have sufficient to chew on. Maybe the moderators themselves were limited in their understanding of the issues but to have someone come and say, “I will raise the national budget from $500 million to $2 billion” in the medium term” and then you don’t ask what that person meant and how they intend to achieve that, is really injustice to those who wanted to know more. Or another candidate says, “I believe in balance budget” and then you don’t ask him what that means and what it portends for the infrastructure development of the country is really a demonstration of the lack of depth of the issues. 

But sad enough and troubling as it may sound, I think those at the bottom of the political ladder seem to have little bid of capacity than those at the top of the political ladder. 

As it stands, the next president will either be George Weah or Joe Boakia and I see these two candidates as the ones with the most intellectual challenges. Even though Weah’s deficiencies are clear, what is more troubling and what most people don’t want to say is that Joe Boakia’s capacity is seriously questioned. I don’t know whether this is due to age but the old man has absolutely no understanding and appreciation of the issues. 

In fact, what has been coming from other international leaders whenever they meet with Joe Boakia is that “he is unable to do the job.” Leaders from Guinea to Ghana to South Africa and at one point in time, China, all questioned whether Liberia was really serious and that Joe Boakai was the one that Madam really wanted to leave in charge of the country?

In fact, very recently, the Campaign Manager, Ngafuan, insisted that Uncle Joe doesn’t go to the debate because he (Ngaf) never trusted the old man’s capacity to handle the issues. Ngafuan was right even though this has landed him in lots of trouble with the Joe Boakia people. For intents and purposes, Ngaf’s role in that campaign is done.

If you have noticed, Joe Baokai doesn’t talk long on any issue because he doesn’t understand the issues. Imagine that he states that his three priorities are road, road and road. This is fundamental lack of understanding of the issues that confront the country.

And for a sitting Vice President to be so much out tone with the constraints that face the country is more telling than anything. There is a “constraint analysis” that was done as part of the MCC Compact program. Just read it!

Now, what is more worrying is that the man is also 73 years and had been Vice President for 12 years so it is means that there is no room for him to learn so no one can argue that he will learn. If he has not learned anything by now and at this age, then it is unreasonable for anyone to argue that there is room for learning. 

The problem is that no one in the Joe Boakia camp is prepared to tell him this. Many of those who are there believe that the power of incumbency will take the old man to the presidency and then they will have their share of the pie. Everyone there believe that the “Uncle Joe” syndrome will win him sympathy and then the Liberian people will elect him and then the party begins.

As for Weah, one can always argue that there is room for growth and learning but this is possible if, and only if, he opens himself up for that. He has been senator for less than three years and has started learning the ropes so the prospects are there as compared to Uncle Joe. For Uncle Joe, everything is already baked in and it seems that on one likes the cake once they cut into it. It seems that there is nothing beneath the icing.

Robin Lee Tarpeh, Political Consultant and Strategist
robinleetarpeh@gmail.com

Over the last several weeks, the Vice President of Liberia and Standard Bearer of the Unity Party received many endorsements-many unprecedented- in several parts of the country and amongst thousands including influential political actors.

The highlight of the endorsements was the one done in Karnplay involving a group of young people under the banner Nimba Youth Alliance for Boakai. It is neither the name of Nimba nor the thousands that converged that mattered but that it was done in Karnplay, the heartbeat of Sen. Prince Johnson’s throttlehold, spoke volume.

Endorsements are important political tools that sway voters but then, as far as history remembers, are also fundamental contributors to complacency. I will now narrate my latter proposition in the next paragraphs.

Sitting calmly and looking at the Joe Boakai’s candidacy, from afar, and the ire of inevitability with which his supporters are approaching the elections, I am but reminded about what happened to Hilary Clinton in the 2016 elections in the US when all pundits concluded that it was over – there was path for Trump.

As the popular saying goes, “elections are not won until they are won” but I see the Joe Boakai movement creating this narrative that the elections are over. I can only hope that what they are presenting is a campaign flavor and they are not using the current momentum to allow complacency to set in because history has a way of teaching very important lessons in very dramatic ways.

Those who are supporting Joe Boakai need to understand that we live in a very traditional society in which it would be uncustomary for people to tell their elders “no” but let’s not forget that voting takes place in secrecy and at those moments, people have the freedom to express themselves as they think so all the endorsements, while extremely important do not write the final chapter in the electoral story.

Our country has a young, largely urban population that may not succumb to the instructions of the “elders” especially since their defiance may not be made public and by the time you get to know it, it will be very late.

Please don’t get me wrong about the chances of Joe Boakai in these elections. It can be argued that he has, probably, the best chance of getting elected when compared to all other candidates.

I proffer this argument because of two fundamental causes: the fragmentation of the opposition and then because of the way the Vice President has carried himself for many year. He comes across as a matured, less polarizing figure that has waited for his time.

Additionally, many of the young people who are interested in electoral or presidential politics see the Vice President as the true political transition that the country needs. Many of them think that the Vice President is very harmless and more than likely will not be able to contest for a second term even if he wanted to.

Those from this school of thought argue that if any other candidate amongst the pack were elected, that person has the potential of running a second term which means that those interested in presidential politics may have to wait for another 12 years.

Against this backdrop, many of them may be inclined to support the Vice President. They think he is calm and stable and will not rock the boat. The fact is that his whole life has demonstrated that and so it is easy to believe that scenario.

With all that said, let’s remember that several things could go wrong that could stop the Vice President from being elected as the 24^th president of the Republic. Before I lift some of these issues, let me establish first that the Vice President doesn’t have quite an established electoral record that we can go back to analyse like in the case of Charles Brumskine or Field Marshall Johnson or soccer star Oppong Weah.

However, to the best that we know, Joe Boakai attempted a run for the presidency in 1997 by contesting for the Standard Bearer position of the UPP. At the Monrovia City Hall, he lost to G. Baccus Matthews in the primaries.

Since that time, we have only seen him on the ticket of the Unity Party as a running mate so then the performance of the UP in Lofa County might be the closest proxy we have for the Vice President’s electoral record.  In 2005 the UP was able to garner only 13,161 votes out of the 54,004 votes cast. Senator Sumo Kupee got 13,325 to be elected as Senator.

This meant that Senator Kupee got more votes than the team that combined the star power of Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and one of Lofa’s sons who had spent a considerable amount of his adult life in the county.

Then in 2011, as sitting President and Vice President, the UP was able to get 64,623 votes in a county that registered 157,029 voters of which 100,499 turned out to vote.

The question that these numbers raised is that why did only 100,499 people turn out to vote when their son was up for re-election as Vice President?

We might never know the true answers but as an analyst and political strategist, I would be concern about that. Well, like I said there isn’t much that we know about the electoral politics of Joe Boakai as a standalone candidate but the above information gives us an idea.

Now, as we approach the polling day, and it is clear that the Vice President and his team arguably have the upper hand in these elections, I wanted to use this medium to proffer that some things could go wrong thereby causing the Vice President to lose the elections.

For example, if the Vice President, with all the resources at his disposal is still not able to announce a campaign team and a running mate this late in the game, it speaks volume about the kind of the campaign he is running.

Here is the danger in not having a campaign team; it means also there is no strategy because it is the campaign team that is supposed to come up with a strategy and if there is no such team then it suggests that there might be no strategy.

Now the bigger problem with there been no strategy and campaign team is that all of these endorsements do not strategically fit into any plan to win the elections. Usually, endorsements are strategic and must lead to something else that helps the cause. 

If these endorsements are just loose or accidental occurrences that don’t tie into something larger, then what will take those people to the voting booth and make them to mark the ballot in your favor?

There is usually a plan in place after the big endorsements are made because all those attending the program usually tend to be part of every other program that will happen in their area and there are sometimes disconnect between the political elites who planned the endorsement and ordinary people whose votes really count. So the lack of proper strategy or plan could potentially hinder the Vice President’s rise to power.

Still on the lack of strategy or plan; because these gatherings don’t fit into a strategy, it might cost the candidate a lot more money as he may have to return to those areas to redo what he could have done in the first place. And as the campaign becomes constrained for resources and other candidates go to that area, there is likelihood they could easily sway voters to their camp.

Now another thing that could go wrong with the Vice President’s campaign as it relates to the delay in making a critical decision about running mate while he racks up all these endorsements is that they could fall apart once the decision is made because it is becoming apparent that most of those who are endorsing him are doing so with some implicit understanding that a member of their sect is being considered for the running mate position. What if that doesn’t happen?

These endorsements could be worth nothing or we could easily see some people use that as an excuse to jump ship especially since jumping ship is becoming the new normal in the country’s body politic.

Let me put little flesh on the bone regarding this subject matter. For example, the folks from Nimba are counting on the VP to name someone from their ranks. Within the Nimba team, there are those who think that the person should come from the Gio side of the divide. What if no one is chosen from Nimba or what if it is not a Gio person?

On the other side, the 19 senators that made the endorsement are hoping that it would be one of them and within that group, they hope that it is a Senator from the Southeast. What if it is none of them? What if it is not a southeasterner?

Again, the Bong endorsement is also counting on the Vice President to pick someone from Bong or at least a Kpelle speaking person. What if that doesn’t happen? Just what if?

Because the critical decisions that could potentially wreck the campaign have not been made and especially since various groups have vested interests, there is a danger of racking up these endorsements before these critical decisions.

Do you remember the Urey, PYJ and LINU merger that is already breaking apart because the fundamental question was not answered before the signing? The Vice President and his team need to sit down and understand all these risks and make strategic political decisions regarding the campaign or the consequence could be dire.

Indeed, there is a still a lot that could go wrong with the Vice President. Wrongs that could rob him of the October elections.

Robin Lee Tarpeh is a Political Consultant and Strategist with First Consulting and can be reached at robinleetarpeh@gmail.com 

Charles Brumskine is arguably one of the five (5) leading contenders for the presidency of Liberia in the ensuing General and Presidential elections slated for October 2017.

By most accounts, he seems a respectable and suitable candidate but on the key question of whether he is electable, the answer is mixed but largely leans towards the NO column.

If the numbers from previous elections are anything to go by, the political journey of Charles Brumskine has been heading south for most part and it appears that a miracle might be needed to get Cllr. Brumskine to the finish line. It will indeed be a modern-day miracle.

This cannot be compared to Trump for there are many different twists and turns including that it is the 3^rd run for the learned lawyer so there are no “unknown unknowns.”

Before we delve into the numbers and what they portend, let’s look, very briefly at the Cllr. Brumskine and while we think he is a known quantity and so his past performance means a lot in this game.

By every measure, Charles Brumskine has a great academic résumé that appeals to many people. Unlike many other contenders, he’s courted the presidency for the best part of the last 20 years and now indulges himself as someone uniquely qualified to steer the affairs of the country-using his short-lived stay at the Senate as that unit of measurement.

He has never been elected to anything other than being a beneficiary of the largesse offered through the NPP by a fouled and flawed Proportional Representation System in 1997. Resigned the post of Pro-tempore of the Senate nineteen (19) months later and then after two (2) months as senator.

He was on the ballot twice; came 3^rd in 2005 with 135,093 votes and a distant 4^th in 2011 picking only 65,800 votes.

Resigned from politics a few days after the 2011 reverberation, went to his “farm”-whatever that meant, it can best be interpreted by only the man who announced it, announced 3 years later that he’s reconsidered his options and would be running for president.

And just before the announcement of being a candidate again, he would court many fat government and private legal offers and appear financially viable. 

The Cllr., and his followers have made several attempts to present him as the candidate with governance ideas who actually wants to engage in policy debate rather than the politics of name calling and tribal divide even though he engages in similar acts when he tries to portray himself as the “Bassa candidate.”

On the policy front, he has tried too hard to communicate some policy ideas but they have fallen flat because they seem to have been picked up from the street and placed into documents that he has been asked to read.

His delivery (the style) of those ideas has been terrible but more substantially, they have been weak and have failed every policy test. For example, he has not communicated how those big promises will be paid for in a country that has budget of less than US$600 million.

If you are going to position yourself as the candidate with the strongest policy ideas, then you must be able to complete the entire policy process by telling the country how much the implementation of that policy will cost, how you will pay for it and what impact it will have.

Of course there is always an opportunity cost. Besides, checking to see if similar ideas have not already been implemented and what the results have been will be a wise move lest the country sees this as another political promise simply made in order to get elected. 

With that being said, here is Cllr. Brumskine performance over time and why I believe his journey in 2017 is going to be bumpy and will require a miracle to get him to the finish line: 

If elections were held in 2003 when Brumskine challenged President Taylor, it is a consensus that, all things equal, he would have won. He had the support of many young intellectuals and was seen as the only man who was prepared to challenge Taylor and therefore would have been rewarded.

That was the highest moment of Brumskine’s political career. And then came the Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA) in 2003 that put in place the NTGL to prepare the country for elections. Those elections were planned for 2005. 

Brumskine had removed himself from consideration to head the NTGL because he was sure of his eventual election as president. The record, in hindsight, shows that that may have been his only chance of ever becoming president.

But then by November 2004 George Weah announced that he would be contesting the presidency. Arguably, this was the moment that ended the Brumskine presidency because absent Weah from the race, Brumskine still had a very good chance of becoming president in 2005 but the CDC momentum ended that dream. 

Because Brumskine had been running for president since 2002 and had exhausted most of his resources coupled with the entry of Weah into the race, he was not able to sustain the network he had built and so when the October election results came in, Brumskine and his Liberty Party (LP) got 135,093 votes which is now his personal best. 

The reason for positing that his 2005 numbers are his personal best is because his 2011 numbers are embarrassingly terrible and everyone can understand why he resigned from politics after those showings. 

For a major candidate who claim to have national appeal to come fourth, not just fourth but distant fourth and especially coming fourth to a candidate who had appeal only in Nimba County is an embarrassment and sufficient to end anybody’s political career. 

Nationally, in 2011, Brumskine settled at 65, 800 which meant he lost 69,293 (from 135,093 in 2005). So he lost more votes than he kept. He also got less than 50% of the votes that Prince Johnson and his NUDP garnered. 

Let’s go further into the country and start with his stronghold, the “bassa belt” and see what occurred there. In 2005, Brumskine got 38,498 votes in Grand Bassa but in 2011, he only managed 28,039 votes in Grand Bassa County out of the 81,369 people that turned out to vote.

That was a massive loss of 10,459 votes. To put this in perspective, consider that Daniel Chea, an aspirant for Senate got 23,072 votes and John Whitfield (deceased) another senatorial candidate got 23,490. The person that Brumskine is depending on in Grand Bassa today, Senator Nyonblee Karnga-Lawrence, won bi-election with only 11,000 votes. 

In Margibi County, Cllr. Brumskine seemed to have lost every steam he once had and dismally performed in the Mamba Bassa area of Margibi. He managed only 5,498 votes in the entire Margibi out of 86,498 votes cast in that county. Margibi is a county with a huge bassa speaking population.

But then an unknown Roland Opee Cooper, a Bassa candidate who also ran on Liberty Party’s ticket in the Mamba Bassa part of the county attracted 6,383 in a single electoral district. What Representative Opee Cooper got in District #1 is more than what Brumskine got in the entire Margibi County. 

Then Rivercess County, another bassa speaking county, also showed terrible and troubling results. In 2011, Cllr. Brumskine and his Liberty Party could only attract 3,179 votes out of 19,159 votes cast and that is 2,326 votes less than the 2005 votes. Unlike Grand Bassa County, Rivercess has two new sheriffs in town; Senators Dallas Gueh and Francis Paye.

Senator Gueh got 6,604 votes amounting to over 100% of the number of votes acquired by Cllr. Brumskine. Sen. Paye, during the runoff, also managed 1,959 votes. The sad news is both men have endorsed the candidacy of Vice President Boakai. Given the sad tribal underpinnings of our politics, it is an endorsement with interesting features.

Why are they not supporting their own? Why is he being rejected by his kinsmen after all? Is there something we need to know? Or can we conclude that he does not have it anymore? 

But to be president, a candidate must have more appeal that what exist inside his own county or amongst his kinsmen. Though Brumskine doesn’t seem to be commanding such appeal among the bassa-speaking people as gleaned from the 2011 results, I am attempting to see whether there is any glimmer of hope for him, nationally and so I take Montserrado.

Amid the political commotion, the county is home to tens of thousands of Bassa speaking residents especially in the sprouting Sinkor area, Oldest Congo Town and the King Gray-Robertsfield Highway areas.

In 2005, Cllr. Brumskine did a formidable job by securing 45,375 votes but then in 2011, he could only appeal to 11,211 votes out of 472,550 people that voted.

In contrast, Losene Bility, LP’s senatorial candidate in Montserrado County appealed to 51,611 voters. Yes, a whopping 51,000 plus votes in a big Bassa speaking county. Yes, you could also argue that Bility’s kinsmen voted him but why not his party?

Or let’s look at Lewis Brown, another bassa speaking candidate running for senate in Montserrado. Lewis Brown got 129,255 votes. This means that Lewis Brown has more national appeal than Charles Brumskine if numbers are anything to go by.

Even though you could argue that he was endorsed by the Unity Party but then, numbers from precincts based in Bassa speaking communities were impressive than that of the learned Cllr.  Is it that Brumskine has no traction?

Can we then conclude that he’s placing his personal ambition above the interest of the party? What is happening to the Bassa narrative and this imposing feature of a Bassa president? Why is Brumskine not liked by the electorates? 

I know we might want to dismiss these analyses but they speak volume about Cllr. Brumskine’s candidacy and the challenges he faces. In 2017,  Brumskine’s first major hurdle is to outpace Sen. Johnson of Nimba. The current dynamics communicate a huge challenge for him.

He needs to up his numbers by 75,000 votes to defeat PYJ and then attract at least 275,000 more votes to have any chance of making it to the 2^nd round. As it stands, he needs a miracle to get those numbers.

Even if he attracts all of the Bassa speaking votes of 271,000 for which there is no evidence to support, he still needs 79,000 more votes to be in that 2^nd round conversation. 

Anyway, miracles do happen and we are standing by to be witnesses to a modern-day miracle but aside from that, a Brumskine’s presidency is a far cry from reality.  

Robin Lee Tarpeh is a Political Consultant and Strategist with First Consulting and can be reached at robinleetarpeh@gmail.com

Recently, the Liberian political space, especially social media, went haywire with the news that Ben Urey and Prince Johnson had formed a coalition.

Without fully understanding the letter of the agreement that was signed, everyone believed that PYJ would be going as vice presidential candidate to Urey. It was the regular stereotype that leads many to conclude that PYJ would be Urey’s Veep. 

Urey’s chief propagandist, Henry Costa, even took to the airwaves trying to paint PYJ as a patriot even though defending him was difficult than Trump’s acceptance of the successes of Obamacare.

While some members within their ranks had hesitations, most of the Urey people believed that without properly reading the agreement. They assumed that Urey is superior to PYJ and so any merger or coalition would naturally dictate that that a ‘Prince Johnson” should be a VP to a “Urey.”

How condescending is that? Why wouldn’t they, for a moment, think that PYJ could be the Presidential candidate while Urey would be the VP? No! In traditional thinking, that is never possible. 

Well, it wasn’t too long when PYJ came to the public and inform them that the agreement only called for a coalition; an idea he believes in if the opposition is to have any chance of unseating the ruling Unity Party. And so, according to him, he was happy to sign it because there is nowhere in the document where it says, he (PYJ) will be VP to Urey.  

In fact if Urey and his people were paying attention, they would have listened to PYJ when he gave an interview to the VOA a few days earlier. In that interview, he was very clear that it was time for the majority “indigenous” to rule. He found it incomprehensible why the minority will continue to take the majority as VP.

He asked, why can’t we (the indigenous) ever be top of the ticket? I am not sure how those who are engaged in politics don’t pay any attention to their surroundings? Why don’t they read signs and signals? 

Anyway, that been said, I really don’t see any political value of a coalition between Urey and PYJ no matter who goes top or bottom of the ticket. It is a losing proposition from a political standpoint. Even both Urey and PYJ can go number one on the ticket (if it is allowed), there is no way they can have any political impact other than making a statement; whatever that statement is. 

Let me be clear here: PYJ does have a political following among the Nimba people. I believe he will be their senator for life. There is no other Nimbaian that can defeat PYJ even if we were to put two on them on a ticket against PYJ. 

That said, let it also be made extremely clear that PYJ doesn’t have a national appeal. There is no way on God’s green earth, that PYJ can become president of Liberia. However, for as long Nimba continues to register a huge number of voters and other Nimba politicians continue to cede the space to PYJ, he will continue to control the County. 

If one takes the time to look at past election results, you will see that PYJ is a strong Nimba politician but doesn’t have the national sway to propel him to the presidency. In fact, I will argue that putting PYJ on any part of your ticket will hurt you so bad that you will regret the day that the thought came to you. Don’t get me wrong, anyone will need PYJ on side so that they can get the Nimba votes to the extent that the Nimba people will listen to him. 

It has not yet been tested whether the Nimba will take political instructions and/or directions from PYJ or will only vote for him once he is on the ticket as a form of gratitude and solidarity for what he “did” for the County during the civil war.

We were not able to test this proposition in 2011 because the CDC pulled out of the second round. Besides, given that the Nimba people have no love for George Weah and then he compounded it by putting Winston Tubman on his ticket. Remember that Winston was the Justice Minister during the Nimba raid and sure the Nimba people have not forgotten that. 

I must admit that the Nimba people have been loyal to PYJ. They will tell you that “I cannot take my intestine from my stomach and replace it with rope.” They are very clear that once PYJ is on the ticket, they will vote for him. Of course he doesn’t hesitate to remind them if another war comes they will see who will defend them. 

Now, if the numbers are anything to go by, then you will see that PYJ is a solid only in Nimba and probably areas of the country where are huge Nimba populations. 

In 2011, it is true that PYJ came third owing to the decent showing in Nimba County and dismal performance by Cllr. Charles Brumskine. PYJ got 140,000 votes with nearly 110,000 coming from Nimba.

Important to note is that the total votes cast in Nimba County that year was 175,000 and imagine that PYJ got 110,000. He also got 16,000 from Montserrado county and you can argue that there is a decent Nimba population in Montserrado. 

When we go back further to 2005, you see that of the 100,124 votes in Nimba that year, PYJ got a whopping 81,820 to become the Senior Senator for Nimba County. And again in 2014, when 59,418 votes were cast, PYJ got another 37,932 to win re-elections. So no doubt the Nimba people believe in PYJ and will always support and those numbers are sufficient to make anyone president. 

So when Urey got all fired up that he had hit the jackpot and was on his way to the Executive Mansion, he needed to look at the numbers and investigate the political terrain a little more. 

Again, it is worth mentioning that anyone would be lucky to get PYJ on side so that he can direct the Nimba votes to that person but it means that the person must have a national appeal and only needs that chuck of votes to get them over the finish line and I am not sure Urey fits the bill. 

Now, let it be known that PYJ will definitely contest the 2017 elections as a presidential candidate and of course he will he have a decent showing. He has to contest as a presidential candidate so that he can continue to convince himself that he is still politically relevant and no one should take him as joke.

Remember, the major reason he ran in 2011 was to prove to Madam Sirleaf that the decision to boot him from the Unity Party in favor of Harry Yuan was a mistake. He wanted to prove that he controls the County and no one else. 

At the end of the day, PYJ will have decent showing but will go nowhere. And then in the second round, he will give his support to Joseph Boakai. 

 I want to remember a few things about the ensuing elections:

 The Unity Party will be in the second round

1. That either CDC or Liberty Party will go to the second round with UP
2. If CDC goes with UP, PYJ has no respect for George Weah and therefore will go with Joseph Boakai;
3. If Liberty Party goes to the second round with UP, PYJ believes that it is time for an indigenous majority to rule and so he will go with Joseph Boakai;
4. Remember that Nimba Elders though will not stop PYJ from running but will encourage him to support Joseph Boakai because the traditional relationship between Nimba and Lofa and PYJ respects the Elders of Nimba. So political commentators like myself, we can only sit afar and watch and illustrate the political malaise 

If the intervening variables don’t convince you to stop wasting your time and money, then you will learn an expensive lesson.  

Cllr. Brumskine, what is going on with your health?

Three long years ago, former President Obasanjo took off the gloves and launched a scathing attack on deceased President Yar’Adua and his then handlers for the “shoddy, tardy, unpatriotic, selfish, and reckless” way in which information about the former president’s health was withheld from the public. He contended that the former president was ill long before the campaign but opted to hide details about his health.

By the end of Yar’Adua’s time as president, Nigeria had spent millions of dollars on his health. Funds that could have been used to provide basic necessities for poor communities were unfortunately spent because someone was economical of the truth. The Yar’Adua’s brouhaha seems to be the same of its anti-corruption president, Buhari.

The latter, elected on the platform of honesty, seems to be dishonest to himself and such scale is now leading to a full scale treachery. It is now very visible that he’s very, very ill and has been again flown out of the country.

The dilemma of Yar’ Adua and Buhari is representative of what is going on with Presidential Candidate Charles Brumskine. Like them, the learned counselor is shielding his illness and even recently travelled to seek urgent medical attention.

His avid supporters are in the know that their man is sick. Even recent photos of Cllr. Brumskine are portraying a picture that he seems not to own.  He’s sick and if prayers are needed, he needs to come clean and tell the people of Liberia that he’s sick and need prayers.

Like President Buhari, Cllr. Brumskine is running a campaign about honesty. It seems he is the only candidate who has a plan about fighting corruption and his recent speech on tackling corruption meets basic standards in fighting graft. Even though his message resonates with political commentators like me, many Liberians are still ambivalent in the digestion of his anti-corruption message. He is surrounded my many with mesmerizing tastes for siphoning resources.

To be a messenger for corruption, people accused and convicted for stealing cannot be the ones carving campaign messages. It is plain deception. However, that is a different case and it will form a part of an upcoming commentary.

Cllr. Brumskine needs to wear the moral garment and say to us what’s wrong with him. I know he’s aging but age is not illness. There are healthy 80-year olds. The debate of him being an older person has little currency. I am aware that we all can get sick. I recently left for Ghana for an urgent medical attention. We all get sick. However, if you are running for public office, it is only fair to inform the public about the status of your health.

Many people reading these lines may be concerned on why am I picking on Cllr. Brumskine. Some may even be suggesting that I am hired gun. That I hate man and wants the walls around him to crumble. No sirs. The reason here is simple; when he’s elected he becomes a liability to the taxpayers.

It is Liberia that will pay his medical bills and not him. Funds meant for addressing healthcare and the provision of basic social amenities will be diverted to restore the health of an ailing president.

So, we demand information. It is the right for the public to know what his current health status is before we join the Nigerian dilemma. Yes, it is that serious and I’m being dead serious.  

The episode with Cllr. Brumskine is enough to get the state through the National Elections Commission to act. It may be only him under the radar now but there are several others with the similar complications. It is high time we developed strong guidelines to demand people seeking public offices to come clean about their health statuses.

Since we will have to defray the expenses attached to their medical expenses, it should be embedded in the available electoral laws. Liberia is not and has never been a welfare state.

Resources are scarce and the available funds should be used to intervene in the provision of affordable healthcare, procuring and distributing school supplies and in other pro-poor programs. Nobody should be allowed to milk the people in broad daylight.

Commitment to the state is paramount and it is so important to keep that commitment. 

Robin Lee Tarpeh is a Political Consultant and Strategist with the First Consulting. Email – robinlee.tarpeh@yahoo.com

Article 90 (c) of the 1986 Constitution stipulates that the Legislature shall prescribe a Code of Conduct (CoC) for the purpose of ensuring that public officials don’t engage in conflicts of interest or act against public policies.

In fulfillment of that constitutional provision, a March 2014 Law was promulgated to serve as a valuable instrument for the enforcement of the said provision laid out by the Constitution. However, because it was poorly written by men with devious intents, it has now become, arguably, an instrument of grave controversies and confusion.

You will agree that it has been a rowdy few months since the Supreme Court upheld provisions of a controversial CoC that bars appointed members of the Executive Branch and civil servants from actively participating in the politics of the country. 

The CoC is of course not the only beneficiary of the unbridled and most times uninformed construal of significant national documents and issues. Lousy public commentary is now the new normal among Liberians- meanly young, exuberant and habitually unsophisticated army of politicians and all subject matter experts.

Unlike other democracies and polities, discussions on key national issues in this part of the world are short-lived. Probably owed to the lack of depth from key crusaders, discussions last for a week or two and then suddenly fade away. This has been the Liberia for the better part of over a decade- an issue is not followed to a logical conclusion. 

However but unsurprisingly, the CoC seems not to fall prey to the regular standards. It is a political document and may deny thousands during a contentious political stretch. 2017 is too much an important year to let go. New political actors will have to be elected but before that, a herculean barrier has to be removed and vanquished.

Too much pressure is being placed on state actors to decisively act in lessening the wild moods and lousy euphoria in the country and from the view of the current trends, anti-CoC bickerers are ostensibly winning.

Important national voices have joined the crusade calling for the urgent repeal of law or extinguishing its flames by recommending simple punishments for people who will be affected by the CoC and those already in hot violation.

As I indicated, the law itself is poorly written. The framers appeared to be in too much haste to stifle others from participating that they forgot to clearly lay out strong punishments for violation. Nobody can be barred as once heralded by the supporters of the CoC.

The Office of Ombudsman is the first line of contact if a party feels aggrieved and there are calls for them to only institute fines as punishment which undermines the intent of the framers.

The intrinsic culture of the lack of reading has dented the legislative chances of the lawmakers. It is believed that it is only now that most of them have come to the realization that actual punishment for violators is discretionary.

Since it is known fact that the most reliable threat to legislative continuity comes from members of the Executive Branch, the failure to read what was being passed has come to haunt the framers.

However, the CoC is not only its own nemesis. Executive Order (EO) No. 83 has also disrupted things further and has placed a wedge thereby deepening the wounds of the CoC. Like the CoC, the EO is a law. The Senate is rightfully refusing to even conduct hearings for presidential nominees to fill the role of ombudsman.

The Senate indicates that if the office of ombudsman was set up by an EO, the president is expected to proceed with the appointment without the consent of the Senate. Things are so murky from the get-go and render the urge to even start, less alluring. Essentially, the path to lead is now left to the impulses of Madam President- a decision that is basically unfavorable to most of the framers of the law.

Unfortunately, all of this is not happening by chance or a demonstration of mere coincidence. The many political uncertainties and judicial panoplies are presided over by the new presidential darling, J. Fonati Kofa (JFK), former Chairman of the Liberty Party. For once, it seems that Madam President herself looks charmed by the virtuoso of JFK.

He knows exactly that Part Twelve (12) of the Act of Legislature prescribing a National Code of Conduct for Public Officials establishes an independent autonomous body called the Office of Ombudsman to enforce, monitor and provide oversight for the adherence to the CoC.

Yet, he still authored the EO to usurp the consenting powers of the Senate. The plan, as any detailed follower would see, was meant to take control of happenings favoring his Liberty Party. Nominations by the president were not done also in isolation.

Except for Elizabeth Hoff, who benefited from an ounce of luck, every other member nominated to the office came at the advice and consent of the former Liberty Party Chairman. 

JFK may not be wrong after all. Politics is an essentially stubborn and politically cruel machination and even spicier if the empress fox is outsmarted. He foresaw all of this with the aid of Cllr. Brumskine’s friend on the Bench, Justice Janneh.

It was a case of a complete randomized controlled trial and what leaves me reeling is the situation of “whether or not the CoC would have had any potency, enforceability and currency had Cllr. Brumskine not picked Harrison Karnwea as running mate?” Separate trials were conducted including sampling the response of the public to the nomination of Harrison Karnwea.

The feedback was terrible; vice running mates are not chosen out of the skies. Consultations are made and when the offers are accepted, final announcements are made. If Karnwea was allowed to run, everyone else would be given a pass. So even though Justice Janneh wanted to suffocate Dr. Mills Jones for unexplained reasons, gears had to be shifted. He had to abandon his ego for the greater political good. Taking control of the process became the only available option. Hence, the demonstration of what we see today.

Besides, had the  internal polling done by Liberty Party shown that a Mandingo/Muslim candidate would have added more value to the ticket as compared to a Nimba candidate and Musa Bility had been selected as running mate, the case for the implementation of the CoC would have been more vocal but when Cllr. Brumskine, an officer of the Court, was forced to take Harrison Karnwea, then the dynamics changed. Imagine that he was prepared to even disrespect the Court and select someone who fell in the category that the Court had ruled was disqualified by the CoC.

Don’t get hoodwinked, all the legal mishaps, missteps, and confusions are by grand design and not mistakes? Do you think that JFK would want to do anything to embarrass his political leader, publicly? Do you know what it would mean for Cllr. Brumskine if Karnwea is disqualified?

This would mean that his judgment is poor and flawed because to consider yourself a good lawyer and then select someone as running mate who gets disqualified on the basis of an opinion that was already handed down by Court before you made the decision is very damning and stupefying.

This is why Justice Janneh and JFK, maybe with support of the President, are doing everything to ensure that the CoC is not a disqualifying instrument so that Cllr. Brumskine is not ridiculed. 

What it seems they may try to do is to save face by ensuring that the CoC is NOT totally trashed as fiercely recommended. Using Section 15.1 of the Code of Conduct, they will seek to institute punishments for violators just to allow Karnwea to run.

It is sad fact the political actors have been screwed. JFK, not the medical center, the one who ran the Liberty Party and still oversees the Liberty Party, is definitely having the last laugh.

As political commentators, we only sit afar and watch and illustrate the political malaise.

Robin Lee Tarpeh is a Political Consultant and Strategist with the First Consulting and can be reached at robinleetarpeh@gmail.com

The first notable and consequential decision to be made by any presidential candidate is the selection of a running mate. This decision is of grave consequence because whoever is selected as running mate is a “heart beat” away from the presidency.

Most times, announcement of such candidate is informed by an extensive work done by a party committee appointed by the candidate to scout and analyze the suitability of potential mates. Only in rare instances will you find the presidential candidate suggesting a running mate to an executive committee for appraisal and endorsement.

In most democracies, reliance, moral decency, mature headship and firmness are sought when choosing a running mate but then in Liberia, a fundamental addendum to the named attributes is the case with numbers.

Yes, in this part of the world, numbers largely outweigh those universal attributes.

Numbers really do matter In Liberia! Therefore, it is not too surprising to many (me included) over the length of time it is taking Vice President Boakai to choose his running mate. It is a laborious task and if it is skillfully executed, the person selected may certainly become the next Vice President of Liberia.

So far, pundits have tucked up six (6) names including Dr. Antoinette Monsio Sayeh, Director of the African Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF); Cllr. Tugbaty N. Warner, Dean of U.L Law School; Dr. Henrique Tokpah, Minister of Internal Affairs and former President of the Cuttington University; Sen. Gbehzongar Milton Findley, former President Pro tempore of the Senate; Atty. Samuel Kofi Woods, former Minister of Public Works; and Honorable Matenokay Tingbeh, a legislator from vote rich Nimba County.

Of the six names, three (3) are from the Southeastern part of the country and due to context, the three names from southeast is not a huge surprise. Vice President Boakai seemingly favors a southeastern candidate because he thinks it will help to unite the country. 

Associates of the Vice President have asserted that he believes that given the Southeastern belt has not had a realistic shot at the top leadership of the country, the selection of one of its sons (daughters) as running mate, could not only woo the region to endorse his candidacy but will garner the needed support during the next six years of his stewardship. 

While there’s angst on the part of the VP in broadening the democratic space, it will be presumptuous to believe that without a poll or a thoroughly review exercise, any uninformed decision made about the southeast may have damning consequences.

If there was never a time for a cooler and steady head to act, this is a perfect opportunity for that kind of exhibition. 

By every stretch, Dr. Sayeh comes to the table very prepared. With an enviable international résumé and local public sector knowledge, she fits the bill as a good pick.

Like Dr. Sayeh, Cllr. Tugbaty Warner is an experienced public servant with extensive international and private sector experience.

Atty. Woods comes to the table with a rich background in advocacy and over decade long senior management experience. His career spans from his time at the revered Catholic Justice and Peace Commission to Ministry of Public Works under President Sirleaf.

Unlike Dr. Sayeh, Both Cllr. Warner and Atty. Woods bring youth to the ticket and could just court outsiders charmed by their legal prowess and academic finesse.

While it must be noted that Sayeh, Woods and Warner hail from VP Boakai’s preferred Southeast, other efforts aimed at consolidating the bloc will have to be accompanied by the sanctification of several stakeholders of the Southeastern counties. 

One notable potential pick who is almost never mentioned is Gbehzongar Milton Findley, former President Pro Tempore of the Liberian Senate. Unlike the three other candidates, he hails from Grand Bassa County and is credited for one of the biggest electoral upsets in 2005 but then one of the most surprising losses nine years later in 2014.

Though he was very instrumental in undermining Cllr. Brumskine’s niche in Bassa in 2011-a cardinal reason leading to his removal in 2014- his electoral loss to a generally unknown Jonathon Kaipay has placed a stain on his political garment. 

Before the inclusion of Dr. Sayeh, Dr. Henrique Tokpah was the presumptive pick of the Vice President. Coming out of vote rich Bong and current Minister of Internal Affairs, his association with chiefs added to the missing rib of the Vice President Boakai to secure a political hat trick for the governing Unity Party. 

Unlike the three, Dr. Tokpah is principally known as a school administrator. His only stint at electoral politics came in 2014 when he narrowly lost to Sen. Jewel Howard-Taylor in a fierce runoff in Bong County. As a newcomer, his loss was in itself a victory.

Commentators believe that had he been on Unity Party’s ticket, Sen. Taylor would have been a former senator by now.

If there was anyone more visible and putting himself up for a potential pick, all fingers will be staring at Rep. Tingbah. With attachments to NAMBO, a political movement that supports the VP bid, he brings a certain form of political capita coupled with youthful exuberance.

However, his county of origin is both an incentive and a liability. Nimba has the numbers and any credible running mate is expected to bring in the required numbers.

Unfortunately, there is a Prince Johnson factor that diminishes the strength of any other candidate. 

Having provided abbreviated analyses of the potential candidates, it is now fair to lay out clearly what the Vice President needs and what may hurt is bid. 

Woods, Sayeh and Warner are outstanding potential picks and the nomination of any of the three people will bring the needed credibility to the ticket. Warner is an anti-corruption czar and his handling of the law school is an indication of what he does with profound responsibilities.

Dr. Sayeh’s public record is also outstanding and as culled from the IMF, she led Liberia through the clearance of its long-standing multilateral debt arrears, the HIPC Decision Point, the Paris Club, and its first Poverty Reduction Strategy, significantly strengthening Liberia’s public finances and championing public financial management reform.

Atty. Woods, too, was a notable voice during the Taylor dictatorship.

He challenged the autocracy and helped using the JPC’s platform, to provide free legal aid to disadvantaged segments of the society. Pioneering efforts to begin the revitalization and reconstruction of basic infrastructures under the Sirleaf Administration were started when he was at the helm of leadership at Ministry of Public Works.

However, Kofi Woods has lost contact with his base-primarily made of students. Other than the vain progressive nostalgia, Atty. Woods adds no numerical value to the ticket. 

Given that the VP enjoys a huge support from major stakeholders from the southeastern region including the endorsement of his presidential bid by almost every senator in the southeast, all three candidates bring little in terms of numbers to the ticket. In Maryland, both sitting senators, Gbeh-blo Brown and Dan Morais have endorsed his candidacy.

In 2011, the Unity Party was second best to Cllr. Tubman and his CDC with 12,327 votes accounting for 42.5% of the total votes. With the two important endorsements, it is expected that at least 50% of the votes in Maryland is firmly secured.

However, it is also very important to note that the candidate of the Alternative National Congress (ANC), Alexander Cummings is from Maryland. Judging by the voting trends of Liberians, Mr. Cummings should get considerable numbers from his native county.

Mr. Karnwea, too, of the Liberty Party has a presence in commercial Pleebo and could attract some votes for the Liberty Party. 

In nearby Rivergee, the Unity Party outperformed all of the other candidates in the two successive elections. In the last general elections outing, 54.7% (9,809 votes) were acquired.

Again, both Senators Conmany Wesseh and Matthew Jaye are firmly in the VP’s camp. Except there’s a real shocker, nothing is expected to significantly change in Rivergee electoral-wise. A replica of the Rivergee scenario is also akin to Sinoe and Grand Kru where the UP won 46.6% and 48.0% respectively in 2011.

However, unlike in 2011 where the presumptive senator, Peter Coleman was supporting the CDC in Grand Kru, he now supports the Vice President and has held many town hall meetings to give reasons for his endorsement.

Already Sinoe County with its two rearing senators serving as surrogates of the VP, a clean sweep is the likeliest outcome. 

Grand Gedeh is the biggest elephant in the southeastern room. Twice it supported the CDC with huge percentages. Unlike 2005 and 2011, there is a new general in town. Recent phone-in radio shows suggest that the long-held grips for the CDC are beginning to weaken.

There’s more UP presence (or at best VP’s presence) in Grand Gedeh than ever before. Son of the former President of Liberia, Samuel K. Doe, Jr is a known surrogate of the Vice President.

A young charismatic Lighe is Minister of Labor, pushups from Rep. Pennue and Sen. Gaye are expected to greatly assist the Vice President. 

In summary, Southeast Liberia is already voting VP Boakai and the picking of any candidate from that region adds nothing numerically to the ticket. 

In Nimba, there’s a roaring Matenokay Tingbah. Other than the youthful excitement and the county shield, Rep. Tingbah comes with the least preparation.

He has little depth. Besides the sloganeering, he offers little to the national conversation. His appointment will present an imposing company to the presidential candidate.

With inroads already being made by Chairman Wilmot Paye in his home district, the selection of Tingbah will present a liability. And if the veracity of an unpublished ANC survey in Nimba is anything to seriously consider, Tingbah’s reelection may hit a huge cliff.

His focus on getting nominated as running mate and abandoning his electoral district is going to hurt him badly. Besides, there are two serious challengers in Nimba; Sen. Johnson and Hon. Karnwea. Both men bring a lot to the table and will undermine any serious bid from a third challenger. 

In neighboring Bong, Dr. Tokpah also faces a dilemma. Both Coalition for Democratic Change and Alternative National Congress have selected their vice running mates from Bong County.

Sen. Jewel Taylor and Amb. Jeremiah Sulonteh have been around the political cycle for many years and have contested many elections in political parties and as general elections candidates. Both eminent citizens of Bong have been tried and tested and pose a serious political hiccup for a third running mate. 

While there is a substantial ground game from several senior citizens of the county including, Tornorlah Varpilah, Sen. Franklin Siakor, former political leader of the Liberty Party, Superintendent Mappy and Rep. Moye, the selection of Dr. Tokpah doesn’t help further.

In 2011, the Unity Party won 42.9% of the votes from Bong. With the guidance of Tornorlah Varpilah and other forces aligning behind the Vice President, it is expected that significant numbers will be acquired again from Bong County.

It may necessarily not be the same 40 plus percent, but it could be around the upper 30 percent.

The case among the Kpelle speaking tribe is going to be aided by a prominent member of the tribe, Emmanuel Nuquay.

He is head of the Legislature and backs the vice president. His presence on the trail will attract additional support among his kinsmen in Margibi County.

That said, the question that lingers is, what additional number is being brought to the table by Dr. Tokpah? In the selection of running mates, it is critical question you may want to answer.

It is a question that wins an argument about a running mate in a contentious elections and the 2017 poll is a one hell of an election! Without an actual incumbent, the field is just too level to take such a major risk. 

All of this filters into what is the thinking about the Bassa belt that comes out of Montserrado to Rivercess and then extends to parts of Bong and Lower Nimba.

Using the 2008 Census as a guide, 271,573 Bassa speaking people are eligible to vote. Unlike the southeast as bloc (excluding Rivercess), Nimba and Bong, there is no real activity in the Bassa Belt. It will therefore be electorally disastrous to cede the belt to the Liberty Party candidate.

There should be a viable presence in the belt that will challenge Cllr. Brumskine for some of the votes in there. 

In 2005, with little presence from anyone in Grand Bassa, Cllr. Brumskine obtained 38,498 votes constituting 58.0% of total valid votes. In Rivercess, Cllr. Brumskine again got 46% of the valid votes.

Even though he got 18% of the votes in Margibi, he got 46% in the predominantly Bassa speaking areas. The available data in Montserrado, Bong and Nimba is too complex to do a fine extrapolation but then, from the available numbers in Margibi, Bassa and Rivercess give a fair assessment of how voting was done in the said belt.

 The 2011 story was quite different. Gbehzongar was Madam Sirleaf’s principal surrogate in the Bassa belt and it did not take long for the numbers to change. In Brumskine’s favorite Grand Bassa County, even though there was a surge in registered voters of 8,000, he only got 28,039 votes representing 37.6% of valid votes cast.

With Gbehzongar as head of the campaign in Grand Bassa, Madam Sirleaf and the Unity Party got 24,798 votes representing 33.2% of the total valid votes. For Rivercess, there was a dramatic change, the LP only managed 18.5% of the votes coming third to both UP and CDC. His numbers were also horrible in Margibi.

He appealed to only 6.8% of the voters and won only 21% of the votes in the Bassa speaking area. All of that came on the back of UP’s presence in the Bassa belt.

Unfortunately, a lot has changed since. Like Cllr. Brumskine would confirm, LP is better financed now then in 2011.

While I believe that he misinformed all of us that the main funding source is from contributions from their members, it must be said LP is well funded and better organized than 2011. 

Then comes Gbehzongar Findley. He comes in the picture partly stained from 2014. His loss is both a blessing and a curse. Even with Madam Sirleaf’s attempt to return the 2011 favor, he was up against an unforgiving Brumskine in 2014.

The LP did not want two masters in the Bassa corridor and would fight with everything to have Gbehzongar replaced. It was a tough battle and eventually, Brumskine came out victorious but with wounds.

He chose a Jonathon Kaipay that would end up being a flop, a disgrace and a conspicuously inept in the senate. Bassa lost the post of senate pro tempore and an important voice in the senate because of Brumskine’s ego. Gbehzongar left bruised but soon found solace in his relationship with the president and now presides over one of the president’s signature projects, the RIA revitalization initiative.

Even as Gbehzongar was defeated by a virtually unknown Kaipay, who himself was introduced to politics by Sen. Gbehzongar Findley, the numbers in the runoff are not bad as believed.

With an ever-present Brumskine throughout the 2014 campaign, Gbehzongar still took several thousand votes representing 36.3% of the votes in Bassa.

This is very significant for him and the Vice President. In Liberia, elections are won by popular votes. With no presence in the Bassa belt, VP Boakai’s best bet should be Gbehzongar Milton Findley.

With more than 271,573 Bassa speaking voters, this should ring a bell to the Vice President. Too much risk is assigned when that number is left to Cllr. Brumskine and his Liberty Party. 

Gbehzongar comes to the ticket as a known face in the belt. Even 30,000 more votes added to what the UP is going to take in Lofa, Bong, Nimba, Montserrdo, Margibi, the Southeast and Western Liberia, it takes the VP almost to the finishing line.

The real contender for UP is the LP. It is a battle for 2nd round and any attempt not to see it from a bird’s eye approach, VP Boakai and the Unity Party should be willing to kiss the presidency goodbye.

Robin Lee Tarpeh is a Political Consultant and Strategist with First Consulting and can be reached at robinleetarpeh@gmail.com

Robin Lee Tarpeh, robinleetarpeh@gmail.com, Contributing Writer