Monrovia – What once seemed an impossible feat appears to be gaining some traction. On the eve of Liberia’s 169th Independence Anniversary, on Sunday, July 25th, 2017, leaders of several opposition political parties sat down for a rare tete-a-tete which could have some bearings on how the 2017 presidential elections take shape.
Report by Rodney D. Sieh, [email protected]
“I think it was a gathering, a beginning step if I may say, in the direction of the opposition community coming together to explore the idea of forming a coalition to dislodge the Unity Party in 2017.
A united opposition is something that most Liberians yearn for, rather than a fragmented one.” – A source privy to the discussion, speaking on condition of anonymity
Multiple sources who attended what is being described as a “retreat” hosted by Senator George Manneh Weah(CDC, Montserrado County) at his Jamaica Resort located in Thinker’s Village, said those in attendance included:
Mr. Benoni Urey, the political leader of the All Liberian Party; Cllr. Charles Walker Brumskine, political leader of the Liberty Party; Alex Tyler, Liberia People Democratic Party (LPDP); Mr. Nathaniel Barnes, the Liberia Destiny Party and Rep. James Biney, chairman of the National Patriotic Party.
Mr. Alexander Cummings, political leader of the Alternative National Congress, who spent the Independence Day in Tappita, Nimba County unveiling some projects, was noticeably absent from the retreat.
The meeting comes amid mounting criticisms and scepticism suggesting that failure of the Liberian opposition to form some coalition could result in a third term for the ruling Unity Party government.
“I think it was a gathering, a beginning step if I may say, in the direction of the opposition community coming together to explore the idea of forming a coalition to dislodge the Unity Party in 2017,” said a source who was privy to the discussions at Ambassador Weah’s residence.
“A united opposition is something that most Liberians yearn for, rather than a fragmented one,” the source speaking on condition of anonymity added.
Amid the latest effort of a united opposition front, many remain sceptical that altering egos of power-driven political forces eyeing the highest office in Liberia can pull the formation of a formidable opposition off.
Even the ruling party, whose incumbent Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf is bracing for her exit in 2018 realizes that no single political party will emerge as winner of the presidency come 2017. “I don’t think any political party can win on its own giving the number of parties.
So, if you see people negotiating, dialoguing it is because that they have all realized that some coalition has to be made for a particular party or parties to be successful,” Sirleaf told FrontPageAfrica in a recent interview.
The departing incumbent’s point has been bolstered by several key opposition figures including Brumskine and Urey, who last week labelled the Unity Party as a “common enemy” all opposition parties should rally against.
“We must unite and fight them. We don’t want war here in our country. How can we fight them? Vote them out, we must disgrace them this 2017. I don’t care if you vote for me but never vote for anybody in this government or associate themselves with this government”
Both Cummings and Tyler’s LPDP have also hinted in recent weeks of a similar path. “It (a coalition discussion) will need to happen through coalitions, through conversations.”
“I don’t want to presuppose what the shape of that would be. I think all of us going into this conversation need to be open to whatever the outcome comes out and I’m going to go into this conversation opened to that.”
Menipakei Dumoe, Secretary General, Liberia People Democratic Party (LPDP) adds: “Collaboration is the most effective means by which the Liberian opposition can capture power at the polls.
“We are currently discussing with all members of the opposition block with a view to device a means by which we can all join efforts to create a government that is able to deliver prosperity to the Liberian people”
On paper, political observers say, the unity rhetoric make good read and print jabs for media speculations, but getting opposing forces to come together has historically been a problem for the opposition in Liberia.
In the 1997 elections which saw former President Charles Ghankay Taylor transform from a rebel leader into a civil president, the opposition failed to merge and Taylor won a landslide ballot.
Similarly in 2011 presidential elections, Dew Mayson’s short-lived National Democratic Coalition made a splash in the months leading into the elections but failed to make hold as Sirleaf and the UP retained state power.
That same year, a much-heralded Brumskine-Weah ticket discussion many dubbed a winning proposition also failed to hold as Weah went on to rule out the possibility of running second to any of his rivals. Weah would later agree to run second to Ambassador Winston Tubman.
But 2017 appears to pose a different challenge with a shifting dynamics that appear to be pinning the key players eyeing the presidency into a corner many say could be out of their reach.
Key among those dynamics is the issue of money, mobilization, momentum and the power of the incumbent factor.
In the past two elections, Weah’s CDC has used their numeric showings to argue that they deserve to head any coalition ticket.
What has changed now?
Political observers say, the realization that a potential second round between the CDC and the ruling UP could once again see the self-proclaimed grass-root party fail to reach the promise land that has eluded them twice with Nimba’s strong-man Prince Johnson, who sway the tide the incumbent’s way in 2011 appears poised once more to play spoiler and hand the UP a third term should the 2017 elections run into a second round.
Numerically, CDC won 28.3% of the vote in the first round in 2005 but lost to Sirleaf in the run-off 40.6% to 59.4%. Six years later in 2011.
Similarly, in 2011, the party declined to contest the second round after losing to the incumbent Sirleaf’s Unity Party 43.9%, to 32.7% with Ambassador Tubman at the helm of the ticket.
Like 2005, CDC cried foul, as Winston Tubman, the party’s standard bearer alleged that the first round had been rigged in Sirleaf’s favour and called on his supporters to boycott the run-off. The electoral institute for sustainable democracy in Africa reported a turnout of 61% as compared to the 74.9% turnout in the first round.
The elections commission declared Sirleaf the winner of the run-off on November 2011 with 90.7% of the vote. The CDC’s insistence that it is the largest and most popular party in Liberia has complicated negotiations with rivals.
What has changed now?
Some political observers and even some CDC stalwarts are admitting behind the scenes that the party risks another second place first round and the damning reality of another fatal second round loss – if the ruling party’s candidate, Vice President Joseph Boakai is on the other side of the coin in a second round battle.
This time around, the unfolding dynamics appear to be giving not just Weah and the CDC but Brumskine, Urey and even newcomer Cummings, some food for thought and perhaps a closer look at the unfolding realities.
Judging from past experience, few believe that a Brumskine-Weah pairing would hold this time around but as one of those privy to Sunday’s discussions put it: “Anything is possible and nothing can be ruled out.
Weah is not as arrogant as some are perceiving him to be. He agreed to be Tubman running mate in 2011 why would he stubbornly not consider this time around, if the conditions are fair?”
That leaves the possibility of A Urey-Weah pairing although both scenarios pose a somewhat tricky dilemma.
CDC still holds a grudge against Brumskine for sitting on the fence in 2005 when he failed to endorse Weah, a key factor that led to the election of Sirleaf as president. Brumskine’s Liberty Party also did not back CDC in 2011 and the lessons of 2005 and 2011 appear to have strain ties between the two parties.
Similarly, the CDC’s short-lived flirtation with Urey has not been all smooth although both sides are said to be making in-roads toward patching up their differences in recent weeks.
To further understand the dynamics of what’s at stake for its political future, Liberia (4.294 million per 2013 Census) bearing any official merger, appears poised to have some 22 political parties contest the 2017 presidential elections.
In contrast, Next door Ghana (27.4 million population); fielded eight candidates in its last elections in 2012. Nigeria, Africa’s most populous (182.2 million, according to the 2015 census figures), saw 11 parties contesting in 2015 presidential vote.
In 2011, 1,798,930, one million, seven hundred, ninety-eight thousand, nine hundred and thirty Liberians registered to vote; In 2005, 1,252, 730 (one million, two hundred fifty two thousand, seven hundred and thirty Liberians registered to vote, according to the institute for democracy and electoral assistance.
In 2005, 22 candidates contested the Presidential elections while 16 candidates contest the presidency in the 2011 Presidential elections. In 1997, the elections that brought Charles Taylor to power saw 13 candidates eyeing the presidency.
What has changed now?
Not a lot. But the stakes have never been higher. So, too, are the expectations of an antsy nation and a wave of international stakeholders watching on the side-lines to see how Liberia writes its next political chapter.
For the immediate future though, all eyes will be eagerly watching the latest opposition attempt at building a coalition; not so much for how it finally shapes up but which political party figure has the poise and political maturity to leave his or her ego in check in pursuit of what Urey and some are now dubbing, the “common enemy”.
