Monrovia – Judging from the political activities of the past few weeks, Vice President Joseph Boakai’s camp should be preparing for inauguration in January 2018, as according to several aides, the ruling Unity Party standard bearer may have already locked up the Liberian presidency and strongly positioned to replace his boss of the past eleven years, President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf.
Report by Rodney D. Sieh, [email protected]
“Vice President Boakai has made the fulcrum of his campaign to spew divisive rhetoric and to protect the corruption that is a cancer in our society.
He and partners in this venture want to keep milking the state coffers and so it is natural that they prefer him.
Their constituents are unhappy with them and like Brumskine and Liberty Party, want change.
We will continue to engage with the people directly. That is where the votes are— the communities” – Mr. Benjamin Sanvee, Acting Chair, Opposition Liberty Party
Riding on the wave of endorsements, the vice president, at a program last Saturday while receiving yet another endorsement from the citizens of Gbarpolu County, was upbeat about the upcoming presidential race: “With your verdict in favor of support to our quest, you so wisely embrace the decision of Lofa.
This adds to the most powerful winds now under my wings, lifting me to heights in the supreme interest of this nation. As things continue to unfold along this trend, we are increasingly making the outcome of October 10 much more predictable.
Yes, we are getting there. My eyes are now more confidently set on the ushering in of the official campaign season is to be declared by the National Elections Commission in a few months.”
Deciphering Numbers Paint Uncertainty
The sudden boost in momentum in the Boakai camp comes in the backdrop of a recent wave of political endorsements from the corridors of the national legislature where 31 elected representatives in the lower house and 30 in the upper house have thrown their weight behind the incumbent vice president.
All this coming two months prior to the July 27, 2017 date when the preliminary list of candidates published is expected to be published by the National Elections Commission, the August 8, 2017 date when the final list of candidates is due to be published and the August 8 – October 8, 2017, period when presidential and representative campaign period are expected to commence.
But even amid the trail of endorsements, many political observers have already begun deciphering the numbers so far with some skepticism, pointing to the fact that these elections are still open and that the official campaign period is a couple of months away.
Additionally, some critics and opponents of the ruling party are unsure whether endorsements from the elected officials will take VP Boakai over the top. Gauging the numbers for example, some say the numbers in the lower house may be a bit inflated.
The ruling party has a total of 26 representatives elected to the house. Thus, only five different representatives joined the 26 representatives of the ruling party making it a total of 31.
The lawmakers in the lower house who have so far expressed support for Boakai are: Prince K. Moye(UP, District #2 Bong), Edward Karfiah(PUP, District #5, Bong), Togbah J. Mulbah(PUP, District #1, Bong), Corpu Barclay(UP, District #1, Bong), Haja Fata Siryon, (Ind. District #3, Bomi), S. Gayah Karmo(Ind. District #2, Bomi), Malai G. Gbogar(PUP, District #2, Gbarpolu), Getrude T. Lamin(UP, District #2, Gbarpolu), Mary Karwor(UP, District #2, Grand Bassa), Marias T. Waylee(UP, District #2, Grand Gedeh), Zoe Emmanuel Pennue(Ind, District #1, Grand Gedeh), Numene T.H. Bartkwa(UP, District #2, Grand Kru), Clarence Massaquoi(UP, District #2, Grand Gedeh), Mariamu B. Fofana(UP, District #4, Lofa), Francis S. Nyumalin(UDL, District #1, Lofa), Julie F. Wiah(Ind. District #2, Lofa), Ben A. Fofana, (UP, District #4, Margibi), Stephen S. Kafi(PUP, District 3, Margibi), Ballah G. Zayzay(UP, District #2, Margibi), Roland Opee Cooper(PUP, District 1, Margibi), Matenokay Tingban(UP, District #9, Nimba), Garrison Yealue Jr., (PUP, District 4, Nimba), Worlea Saywah Dunah(PUP, District 7, Nimba), Larry P. Yonquoi(UPP, District #8, Nimba), Prince O. Tokpah(PUP, District #2, Nimba), Henry B. Fahnbulleh(UP, District 4, Montserrado), Josephine Francis(UP, District #1, Montserrado County), Sekou S. Kanneh(UP, District #2, Montserrado County), Edwin Melvin Snowe(UP, District #6, Montserrado County), Edwin G. Zarzar(UP, District #3, Sinoe), Christian S. Chea, Sr.(UP, District #2, Montserrado County)
In the Senate, where 19 of 30 senators have announced that they support his candidacy, six of the 30 are from the ruling party.
Edward Dagosseh (UP-Grand Cape Mount County), Varney Sherman (UP- Grand Cape Mount County) and Alphonso Gaye (UP-Grand Gedeh County)- are from the ruling party. Geraldine Doe-Sheriff, who won her seat on the ballot of the Congress for Democratic Change switched loyalties late last year when Boakai received the blessing of the party to contest on its ticket.
The remaining Senators include: Albert Chie (IND-Grand Kru County), Henry Yallah (PUP-Bong County), Dan Morias (NPP-Maryland County) Gbleh-bo Brown (IND-Maryland County), Peter Coleman (CDC-Grand Kru County), Others are Geraldine Doe-Sheriff (CDC-Montserrado County) Thomas Grupee (NUDP-Nimba County), Dallas Gueh (PUP-River-cess County), Armah Z. Jallah (NPP-Gbapolu County), Matthew Jaye UP-River-Gee County), Daniel Naatehn (ANC-Gbapolu County), Francis Paye (NDC-River-cess County), and Morris Saytumah (UP-Bomi County), including Milton Teahjay (IND-Sinoe County), George Tengbeh (UP-Lofa County) and Jim Tornonlah (PUP-Margibi County).
Despite the endorsements, leading opposition parties appear to be unimpressed.
Birds of Same Feathers, Liberty Party Says
Benjamin Sanvee, Acting Chair of the opposition Liberty Party argues that the mass endorsement from lawmakers proves the old adage that birds of the same feathers flock together.
“Vice President Boakai has made the fulcrum of his campaign to spew divisive rhetoric and to protect the corruption that is a cancer in our society. He and partners in this venture wants to keep milking the state coffers and so it is natural that they prefer him. Their constituents are unhappy with them and like Brumskine and Liberty Party, want change. We will continue to engage with the people directly. That is where the votes are— the communities.”
Sanvee explains that a major reason why they party has not received major endorsements from members of the legislature is due to the fact that Senator Nyonblee Karnga-Lawrence (Liberty Party, Grand Bassa) and the party’s political leader Cllr. Charles Walker Brumskine have been fighting the ridiculous salaries of lawmakers over the past few years.
“We are ok with it. To draw a line under these endorsements, take a look at the re-election rates from 2011 and 2014. We in LP see these endorsements as a blessing for the Liberian people because it helps them see through the dark propaganda that Vice President Boakai loves this country.
He has basically come out and told the whole country through his acceptance of these endorsements, that he stands by all the looting that has been happening on Capitol Hill.”
Criticisms aside, some political observers say, complacency could be a vulnerable liability for the VP camp as election campaigning period nears and opponents begin to highlight some of the many frailties of the ruling party which has struggled to contain widespread criticisms that it has failed in the fight against corruption.
Momentum Shifts Characterize Race
Some have even begun drawing comparison to the US president elections last year where the Democratic nominee Hilary Clinton garnered the support of more than 240 newspaper editorial boards compared to her rival Donald Trump’s 19 with Trump defying the odds stacked against him to win the US presidency.
With only weeks remaining to the start of the political campaign season, the race to the Liberian presidency which has seen a number of momentum shifts in the aftermath of the naming of running mates – favoring the Coalition for Democratic Change, Liberty Party, Benoni Urey’s All Liberia Party and Alex Cummings’ Alternative National Congress, appears to be largely uncertain even as Vice President Boakai and his supporters strings of endorsements as a signal of triumph in October or probably November.
The bottom line for many political observers is that it is unlikely that any of the major parties are capable of winning in the first round.
Analysis of various polls in recent weeks point to the ruling UP, CDC, LP, ANC and ALP as making gains. For the ruling party however, many diplomatic observers say, Boakai’s choice of a running mate could tip the scale for or against the incumbent government.
For now, though, the vice president is basking in the glow of multiple endorsements even as much caution that this race is far from over and anything late surprise could change the dynamics of perceptions of the moment.
Confident Boakai Eyeing 1st-Round Knockout
In spite of the caution plea, Boakai and his supporters have been trumpeting the possibility of a first round victory even as the opposition prepare to launch a massive attack on what many say have been failed Unity Party-led government policies that could crippled Boakai at the pools. But in any case, Boakai told citizens in Gbarpolu at the weekend.
“I think I point out what is increasingly becoming a potential reality in the October 10 elections. If we continue to hold together we could do this nation a favor by closing these elections in just one round.
“I venture to foresee the possibility of delivering our deafening, unequivocal and final verdict come this Tuesday, October 10, 2017. Let us save our dear Mama Liberia the cost of an expensive and resources wasting second round.
One round will save the National Elections Commission the extra burden of doing it over again. One round will save our national coffers that huge and punishing financial outlay.
One round will solidify our unity. One round will give us a clear-cut government that will have one purpose, one direction, and one resolve to lift our people from their unsatisfactory level of living.”
‘Return of So Say One, So Say All’, ALP’s Jackson Says
But economist Samuel P. Jackson, a strong supporter of Urey’s ALP disagrees, delivering a stinging indictment of the Sirleaf-led government and the risks he says Liberians will be taking by handing the ruling party another six and possibly twelve years.
“Endorsements from politicians who are beneficiaries of the country’s spoil system should not be surprising. “
“Many of those endorsing Vice President Boakai represent the top of the hierarchy in the country’s rotten patronage system, enveloped by cronyism and corruption,” Jackson says.
Mr. Jackson says those trumpeting VP Boakai’s horn would love to remain in their positions and to have a President Boakai, who will continue the bad governance that has characterized Liberia since its founding.
“Boakai’s endorsements are reminiscent of the days of the True Whig Party Oligarchy of “so say one, so say all”.
Adds Mr. Jackson: “After nearly 12 years of ruining the Liberian economy, by repeating the sins of the past, including crystallizing the faulty concession model that began with the United Mining Company in 1869 and 1881, and the Liberia Development Company of Sir Harry Johnston in the 1900s, and after passing 66 out of 68 of the same faulty concessions under this government, that only benefited legislators in signature fees, I am not surprised.
Fortunately for Liberians, the endorsements come from people without any political constituency. Liberians don’t want continuity of corruption and bad governance.
The country needs to move in an entirely different direction from the path it has taken for 170 years, a path that Joe Boakai is inextricably tied to.”
