It appears Liberia’s 2017 presidential race could be a repeat of both the 2005 and 2011 races which saw multiple parties and personalities opting to run on their own.
An assessment of behind-the-scenes discussions with some of the major players eyeing the presidency by FrontPageAfrica reveals that most of them are cooling off to the idea of an off-the-bat merger until after the first round.
Analyst by Rodney D. Sieh, [email protected]
Monrovia – It appears Liberia’s 2017 presidential race could be a repeat of both the 2005 and 2011 races which saw multiple parties and personalities opting to run on their own.
An assessment of behind-the-scenes discussions with some of the major players eyeing the presidency by FrontPageAfrica reveals that most of them are cooling off to the idea of an off-the-bat merger until after the first round.
RUNNING ON THEIR OWN
The current count of registered political parties by the National Elections Commission stands at 22 and parties still have until early 2017 to close nominations of standard bearers.
In 2005, some 22 presidential candidates were cleared to contest while six candidates were rejected. Those elections which saw the climax of post-war political transition saw Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf emerged as the first democratically-elected female African head of state.
Six years later in 2011, sixteen candidates were cleared by NEC to contest the presidency which saw Sirleaf retain her reign at the helm.
With about a year remaining to the 2017 race, discussions have been going on behind the scenes in the past few months with various political players jockeying for pairings that could lead them to victory.
A lot of those talks however appears to have broken down with each political figure sensing an open field as it was in 2005, being their best bet to clinch the presidency.
Both in 2005 and 2011, in spite of the large pool of presidential candidates, Liberians could not determine what made each candidate different, as it seems all of them had the same policy and programs.
FrontPageAfrica now takes a look at the risks, gamble and potential odds for those decidedly leaning toward running on their own.
JOSEPH BOAKAI
THE GAMBLE LOWDOWN: The Vice President has reportedly been in discussions with various political figures in hopes of forming some kind of alliance. Both Weah and Brumskine have been mention at different times but some insider say it is likely that Boakai could be leaning toward a traditional ticket with several prominent Bong figures in the mix including Ambassador Jeremiah Sulunteh and Internal Affairs Minister Henrique Tokpah.
Boakai finds himself in a very delicate dilemma, divided over embracing the successes of the Sirleaf administration and stepping out on his own – out of the shadows of Sirleaf, who has publicly declared her support for his candidacy.
POTENTIAL STUMBLING BLOCK: Like a lot of the candidates eyeing the presidency, financing will be a major factor and word on the street is that the Vice President’s campaign is struggling, financially. The Sirleaf administration baggage of poor record on corruption, messy education sector and yet-to-be completed infrastructural development could make the VP vulnerable to attacks.
ODDS ON HIS OWN: 3-1 – The VP camp has been rocked in recent days after business cards surfaced on social media with two castaways from the Sirleaf camp touting themselves as key advisors to his campaign. Liberians on the Social Network Facebook have been having a field day after Madison Tukpah and Jake Kabakollie business cards reportedly left in Nigeria during the VP’s recent visit.
CHARLES WALKER BRUMSKINE
THE GAMBLE LOWDOWN: After contesting the presidency in the last two elections, the senior partner of Brumskine & Associates, will be hoping that that 2017 makes him a third-time charmer. Brumskine who has been vocally expressive about the importance of having a strong opposition to challenge the ruling Unity Party’s reign, has made some inroads in recent weeks with football legend George Weah.
Bad blood between both the Liberty Party and the Congress for Democratic Change heightened after Brumskine failed to endorse both Weah and Sirleaf in the second round of the 2005 elections.
Brumskiine also refused to endorse CDC in 2011 but chose to endorse President Sirleaf in the run off. CDC has not forgiven Brumskine but both figures have in recent weeks become, not the best of buddies, but according to aides, fairly good friends.
POTENTIAL STUMBLING BLOCK: Brumskine’s decision to declare that he would not contest the presidency after his 2011 dismal performance took some steam out of his political belly. But financing will be key in his third quest for the presidency. In the past few months, Mr. Brumskine has been working to erase perceptions that he is an elitist.
The Liberty Party political leader also faces criticisms that he has aligned to closely to the Sirleaf administration. He is also viewed by some as a regional and tribal Candidate who has been unable to expand his reach beyond Bassa although in the party’s defense, supporters say, the recent election of Steve Zargo dismisses that theory.
Some of Brumskine’s foes see the ongoing saga involving embattled speaker Alex Tyler and the Global Witness bribery probe could cost him points amongst opposition figures supporting Tyler as his party’s former chair, now a Deputy at Ministry of State and head of the Task Force is leading the charge against those accused, including Tyler.
ODDS ON HIS OWN: 2-1 – With the right pick and a strong organization, 2017 could be Brumskine’s year. Early signs are pointing toward Harrison Karnwea or Edith Gongloe Weh as his choice for running mate.
NATHANIEL BARNES
THE GAMBLE LOWDOWN: The former ambassador to the U.S. ,and the UN and Liberia Destiny Party candidate has been flirting with the National Patriotic Party of late but faces stiff competition from Benoni Urey’s All Liberia Party. He has been trumpeting an embrace of an economic policy that is focused on empowering people at the community level.
POTENTIAL STUMBLING BLOCK: Barnes, who was Minister of Finance under President Charles Taylor from 1999 to 2001, ran as the LDP presidential candidate in the 2011 elections, placing 12th out of 22 candidates, receiving 1.0% of the vote. Visibility and financial woes are likely to remain Barnes’ Achilles heading into 2017.
ODDS ON HIS OWN: 10-1 – Barnes at least for now appears unlikely to improve on his 2011 showing and does not appear ready to throw his weight behind one of the competition.
ALEXANDER CUMMINGS
THE GAMBLE LOWDOWN: The former Coca Cola executive has acknowledged that his late entry in the race puts him at a disadvantage but has been working around the clock to increase his visibility. He appears to be making some inroads in the rural areas in hopes of convincing the 73 electoral districts that he has the right pedigree to clinch the Liberian presidency.
Like many of the competition, Cummings has been busy on the negotiations table, engaging the likes of Brumskine, Jewel Howard Taylor and a host of others.
But Cummings says he is in it to win and does not appear embracive toward playing second fiddle. He told FrontPageAfrica recently.
“I’m open to the conversation with any and all political parties. What I will say though is my interest is in running for the presidency of Liberia. I’m not doing this to get my name out there so I can run the next time. I’m going to do this with every fiber in my body, with the resources I can muster from the Liberian people to win the leadership of our country.”
POTENTIAL STUMBLING BLOCK: Mr. Cummings has repeatedly dismissed allegations over his citizenship, saying in several forums when asked: I’m a Liberian. I have a Liberian passport and I often say to people, I was born a Liberian, I am a Liberian and I will probably die a Liberian.”
In recent weeks there have been some reports suggesting a fight at the Supreme Court over Cummings nationality. How long that drags on could be a decisive factor, despite recent reports that the former Coca Cola executive is making inroads amongst regional leaders impressed with his candidacy. His ability to gain name recognition could prove pivotal and difficult without spending millions of dollars.
ODDS ON HIS OWN: 7-1 – If Mr. Cummings can pull off a miracle in cementing his foot on the political terrain, he could be a dark horse as Liberia inches toward the 2017 elections.
PRINCE Y. JOHNSON
THE GAMBLE LOWDOWN: Thanks to vote-rich Nimba, the Senator remains a viable force in Liberian politics with many acknowledging his king-maker persona as key for a potential second round play. Johnson has been toying and flirting with virtually all of the major players looking toward him for support.
Make no mistake; PYJ’s backing is being sought from all corners – from Vice President Boakai, to Alexander Cummings and Charles Brumskine, who see his hold on the county as key to potential victory in 2017.
POTENTIAL STUMBLING BLOCK: Despite his overwhelming popularity in Nimba, PYJ has been unsuccessful in crossing over beyond the confines of Nimba. His role in the civil war as leader of the Independent National Patriotic Front of Liberia (INPFL) has ruled him out as a unifying candidate and unlikely to win the presidency.
ODDS ON HIS OWN: 5-1 – PYJ’s third place finish in 2011 which saw him pick up 139, 786 votes for 11.6 percent was no fluke but only showed how viable and decisive a kingmaker he remains.
MILLS JONES
THE GAMBLE LOWDOWN: The former Governor of the Central Bank of Liberia has seen his political stocks drop since leaving the CBL. His name has popped up in a few discussions regarding pairings with the likes of George Weah, Jewel Howard Taylor and former Finance Minister Augustine Ngafuan in the mix. Jones loan-giveaways during his tenure as CBL governor made him a popular figure but following has declined since his departure.
POTENTIAL STUMBLING BLOCK: The timing of Jones’ exit from the CBL could be the ultimate decider of his quest for the presidency. Section 5.1 of the Code of Conduct provides that “All officials appointed by the President of the Republic of Liberia shall not, (a) Engage in political activities, canvass or contest for elected offices (b) Use government facilities, equipment or resources in support of parties or political activities. The code also states that such persons cannot (c) Serve on a campaign team of any political party, or the campaigns of any independent candidate.
Jones’ advocates took their fight to the high court in August 2014, when a group under the banner of Citizen Solidarity Council (CSC) filed at the Civil Law Court a “Declaratory Judgment” seeking the declaration from the court of the unconstitutionality of sections 5.1 and 5.2 of the Code of Conduct.
The advocates argued that the session did not only contravene the Constitution, but also infringed on certain fundamental rights expressly granted and guaranteed by the Constitution to citizens, including as in the instance case, the right to seek elective political office.
They asked the court to declare the rights of Liberian citizens currently occupying official positions in government to contest elective positions in the 2014 Mid Term Special Senatorial Elections and the 2017 Presidential and Legislative Elections without any hindrance or precondition.
The court in a ruling last month, rejected the petition dealing a major blow to the former CBL governor. Jones’ troubles started in February 2014 when the Senate voted unanimously to pass a bill to deny current executives of the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) the right to run for elective office for three years if the House of Representatives concur.
“The Executive Governor of the Central Bank of Liberia and members of the Board of Governors shall be prohibited from contesting political office(s) while serving in their respective offices and shall not be qualified to contest any electable office within three years consecutively after the expiration of their tenure and in his/her resignation from the Central Bank of Liberia.”
ODDS ON HIS OWN: 7-1 – Despite the lingering legal woes, Jones has vowed to press on and continue his quest for the presidency. But his biggest challenge appears to be whether he can resurrect the momentum he enjoyed during his stint as CBL governor in the absence of a nationwide loan scheme he initiated that benefitted thousands of small Liberian businesses, particularly market women.
TOGA GAYWEAH MCINTOSH
THE GAMBLE LOWDOWN: After running into a stonewall in his quest to challenge Vice President Boakai for the ruling Unity Party standard-bearer-ship, the former ECOWAS Vice President has slipped under the radar. It is unclear which political party he is leaning but his name has popped up in a few corners as potential running mate.
POTENTIAL STUMBLING BLOCK: Dr. Mcintosh has been out of Liberia a while and some political observers say he may lack the resources and visibility to make a serious push for the presidency.
ODDS ON HIS OWN: 10-1 – Unless Dr. McIntosh finds a political landing path soon, his quest may be over before it begins.
AUGUSTINE NGAFUAN
THE GAMBLE LOWDOWN: The former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Finance and the Bureau of the Budget, is by far the only former government official who resigned outside the two years required prior to announcing a quest for public office. He has been a strong advocate for officials in government to relinquish their posts if they have ambitions, as he has.
Mr. Ngafuan, in his parting shots made it clear that the act of the legislature prescribing a National Code of Conduct, is clear that officials should resign before participating in any elected political office for the 2017 election, declaring that he wanted to set an example because he has ambition for 2017.
Since stepping down from his MoFA post last October, Mr. Ngafuan who has not hidden his desire to be an active player in the coming 2017 presidential elections has been holding a series of discussions with various stakeholders and potential rivals. His name has popped up in discussions with Weah and former CBL governor Mills Jones as a potential VP candidate although Mr. Ngafuan has stated clearly that he is contesting the presidency and not the vice.
POTENTIAL STUMBLING BLOCK: Mr. Ngafuan hails from Lofa County, the same hometown of Vice President Joseph Boakai. His entry into the race was seen by many of his peers as biting the hand that fed him for the past ten years and brought him to prominence. He told FrontPageAfrica in an interview earlier this year.
“We are separate individuals. I have a different trajectory; he has a different trajectory. My records are there; his records are there but let us not create an impression that this election is going to pit me against him. This is an election that individuals will be competing and this is not just technically a political county meet.
ODDS ON HIS OWN: 10-1 – The former minister has youth on his side but may lack the financials to make a strong push for the presidency.
REV. KENNEDY SANDY
THE GAMBLE LOWDOWN: The Liberian Transformation Party candidate made a big splash on the campaign trail in 2011 with some impressive parades but failed to gather steam. He did manage to claim 13, 612 votes for 1.1 percent, enough to place him fifth. Rev. Sandy has been quiet regarding his role in the 2017 race although aides signal he may give it another try.
POTENTIAL STUMBLING BLOCK: The failure of Rev. Sandy to build on the momentum of his entry into the 2011 race puts him in a difficult position should he enter the 2017 play. Visibility remains a burdening issue for the clergyman.
ODDS ON HIS OWN: 10-1 – The clergyman will need a miraculous showing to pull off his second quest for the presidency.
TOGBAH NAH TIPOTEH
THE GAMBLE LOWDOWN: Dr. Tipoteh’s ability to remain relevant with the passage of time makes him one of the most matured politicians in Liberia’s recent political history. He is unlikely to increase on his performance in the past two elections but he is likely to be spot-on on raising the issues that matters.
Dr. Tipoteh, a former Minister of Planning and Economic Affairs during the reign of Samuel Doe, resigned after 15 months in office, citing human rights abuses by the government as his reason for leaving.
The 2017 elections will mark Dr. Tipoteh’s fourth attempt at the presidency. He ran in the 1985 elections under the banner of the Liberian People’s Party(LPP), the electoral wing of the Movement for Justice in Africa and also ran in 1997 as a candidate of the LPP, winning 1.61% of the vote.
In the 2005 elections, Dr. Tipoteh was the candidate for the Alliance for Peace and Democracy, an alliance of the LPP and another veteran opposition movement, the United People’s Party(UPP), winning 2.3%. In the 2011 elections, he was the candidate of the Freedom Alliance Party of Liberia, clinching 0.6 percent of the votes.
POTENTIAL STUMBLING BLOCK: The ghosts of the April 14 rice riots continue to haunt Dr. Tipoteh and many of his peers from the progressive era.
But Dr. Tipoteh says those hinging on to the perception are wrong. “You need to redefine your definition of “stain” because the struggle to build sustainable democracy in Liberia has no “stain” whatsoever! The irreversibility of the struggle to build sustainable democracy in Liberia” can never be taken away.”
ODDS ON HIS OWN: 10-1-
AMBASSADOR WINSTON TUBMAN
THE GAMBLE LOWDOWN: The Standard bearer of the Congress for Democratic Change in the 2011 elections has heard the online hoax about his death and made fun of it when FrontPageAfrica contacted him recently. But jokes aside, Ambassador Tubman has shown political maturity as an elderly statesman and numerically performed above expectations in the two elections he has contested.
In 2005, running under the banner of the National Democratic Party of Liberia, Ambassador Tubman tallied 89, 623 votes for an impressive 9.2 percent, enough for fourth place. He followed up in 2011 as the CDC standard bearer clinching 394,370 votes for 32.7 percent.
It is unclear which party Ambassador Tubman will align with this time around and his name has not been mentioned in any of the merger discussions over the past few weeks. What is known for sure, is he is very much alive.
POTENTIAL STUMBLING BLOCK: Age may not be on Ambassador Tubman’s side. His health is also a concern. But most importantly, having run on two different parties in the past two elections, financial and stability issues could dog the former UN Secretary General Special Representative to Somalia.
ODDS ON HIS OWN: 8-1 – Ambassador Tubman remains a popular force in his homeland, Harper, Maryland County and is still highly regarded but 2017 may be his last hurrah.
BENONI UREY
THE GAMBLE LOWDOWN: The Chairman of the Board of the Lonestar mobile phone service which is partnered with the MTN Group of South Africa, through his PLC Investments, is perceived to be the candidate with the most financial assets in the 2017 race. His perceived wealth and strong financial backing could prove pivotal and put him ahead of the pack at least financially. Urey has mostly been linked with discussion involving George Weah. With Weah now set to run on his own, Urey could be on the shopping block for a running mate that gives him a strong visibility beyond what is likely to be a hotly-contested Montserrado County.
POTENTIAL STUMBLING BLOCK: Despite being delisted from both the United Nations Sanction Lists and the US Treasury Department along with several other figures from the Taylor era, Mr. the stains of that era continues to haunt him. Urey in 2000 Urey was sanctioned by the UN for his alleged role in arms procurement and also for his alleged ties with Taylor
ODDS ON HIS OWN: 3-1 – Amid his perceived wealth, many of Urey’s foes doubt he will relinquish his finances into one presidential campaign. Although some have speculated in recent months that Mr. Urey is on the verge of selling his 20 percent MTN shares to bankroll his quest, Urey suggested in a FrontPageAfrica interview earlier this year that he will resign from the cellular company if elected.
“I will have to resign as Chairman of the Board. There is no law that prohibits the President from being involved in business. You do not want to rely on government money and contrary to that you will be surprise to know who owns MTN. Even before I become President I will resign.”
GEORGE WEAH
THE GAMBLE LOWDOWN: After flirting and toying with several of his political foes, the football legend appears to have come to the conclusion that he will embark on his second quest for the presidency on his own. Multiple sources have confided to FrontPageAfrica that Mr. Weah who has been in talks with Urey, Brumskine and the Cummings camp will not be playing second fiddle to anyone as he did in 2011 when Ambassador Winston Tubman headed his party’s ticket.
Mr. Weah, in his first attempt during the 2005 presidential race, won 275,265, votes for 28.3 percent but fell short in the second round despite tallying 327,045 votes for 40.6 percent in the second round, losing to Ellen Sirleaf who won 478, 526 votes for 594 percent.
POTENTIAL STUMBLING BLOCK: Despite obtaining an undergraduate and master’s degree to address previous handicap to his presidential quest and an election as Senator for the vote-rich Montserrado County, the jury is still out on Weah’s ability to lead. But more importantly, the party’s finance is in a mess amid numerous reports in recent weeks suggest that it has been unable to pay for upkeep of its headquarters in some counties.
More importantly, Mr. Weah has failed to show an ability to raise funds in 2005, 2011 and now 2017. His CDC is perceived to have “no good people” to run an effective campaign and build a governing team and most of Weah’s detractors see him as ill-prepared for the job, a perception that permeates even among international folks, with many agreeing that a CDC second round could mean a victory for whoever joins them there.
Weah is said to be under immense pressure from his followers and has told some aides he is not interested in the presidency but feels obligated to the “downtrodden” who have supported him and propelled him to political relevance. Also inconsistency has been a key lapse for Weah with many unhappy over how he has played his rival politicians creating distrusts and uncertainty.
ODDS ON HIS OWN: 2-1 – The fact that Weah’s party finished second in the last two elections puts the Congress for Democratic Change in a position of strength on the negotiations table, a key factor which has led to breakdown of talks with other rivals looking to join forces.
Weah’s supporters see him as good enough to head any ticket and have been pushing the football legend against running second, despite the party’s inability to cross over beyond the confines of its grassroots base. 2017 could mark a turning point for CDC and a litmus test climax for Weah’s political maturity.
Unending Debacle
With less than 400 days to the presidential elections, much of the talk in the past few weeks have been whether those eyeing the presidency are capable of setting aside their egos for a united front.
But with most of the opposition appear likely to run on their own, some key questions remain: Will Mr. Brumskine support Weah in the event of a second round? Or vice versa, would Weah return the favor that was denied him and his CDC twice in 2005 and 2011?
The latecomer Cummings will be hoping that the perceived gains made in the past few months will steer him off the path of Rev. Sandy.
Urey and his ALP will be hoping that remnants of the disarray Tyler’s LPDP will throw their weight along with resources to help Urey make a strong push toward the presidency.
For now, the play for 2017 is taking an intriguing twist with key candidates turning to vote-rich Nimba and Bong for running mates in hopes of turning the corner. With PYJ heavily visible favorite to sweep Nimba again, some political analysts say choosing a Nimbaian could be suicidal and unlikely to secure the presidency for anyone with keen sights on winning.
Karnweah, one of those being eyed is seen as too traditional and will likely support Boakai or could be Boakai’s running mate despite overtures from the Liberty Party. If Boakai can reach the second round and secure PYJ’s support, Karnwea could likely go his way. Both Karnwea and PYJ hail from the Gio faction of Nimba and are best of friends, according to aides.
An ideal scenario for some has been dismissive for others, a pairing of Brumkskine going as VP to Weah in the norm of Joe Biden to Barack Obama. Judging from past two elections, Weah has had the most support. But many fear his lack of experience should see Brumskine head the ticket, a proposition which appears to have been thrown out the door, thus explaining why talks have broken down in recent days.
For the foreseeable future, political observers say, it is unlikely that Liberia 2017 race could mirror Nigeria, where Buhari united the opposition to beat the incumbent Good luck Jonathan and appears more likely to mirror Uganda where failure of the opposition to rally around Kizza Besigye resulted in a costly loss to the incumbent and a victory for the long-time leader Yoweri Museveni.