Monrovia – Several factors are contributing to the uncertainty regarding the successor to the incumbent President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf: Jitters over the failure of the opposition to form a united front, increasingly likely voter-fatigue and fears of a one-party resurgence if the ruling Unity Party retains power and bleak financial outlook of those eyeing the highest office in the land are all lowering expectations and predictions of stakeholders with interest in Liberia’s immediate political future.
With 349 days to voting day, an Afrobarometer survey finds Only 14 percent of Liberians said they would support the ruling Unity Party candidate Joseph Boakai; George Weah’s Congress for Democratic Change is said to be enjoying more than double that, with 32 percent of Liberians saying in May 2015 that if an election were held the next day that they would vote for CDC. No other party garnered support from more than 9 percent of those surveyed.
(And 11 percent said they didn’t know whom they would vote for)
Last week, an Afrobarometer survey found that only 14 percent of Liberians said they would support the ruling Unity Party candidate Joseph Boakai as compared the Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) candidate Senator George Weah’s 32 percent, while 11 percent said they did not know which candidate to vote for.
The survey concluded: “George Weah’s Congress for Democratic Change is said to be enjoying more than double that, with 32 percent of Liberians saying in May 2015 that if an election were held the next day that they would vote for CDC.
No other party garnered support from more than 9 percent of those surveyed. (And 11 percent said they didn’t know whom they would vote for.)”
But a lot has happened since May 2015.
After a decade of relative stability which has included two Presidential elections, Liberia is looking ahead to its first post-war electoral leadership transition when President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf’s second term ends in 2017.
Less than a generation removed from civil war, the country is still rebuilding governance and economic structures, and the upcoming elections – which are already drawing candidates from more than 20 political parties – promise to put that progress to the test.
Afrobarometer survey findings suggest that Liberians can build on public support for democracy and its components, including support for regular and fair elections and multiparty competition, although overall demand for democracy is relatively weak compared to other African countries.
About four in 10 Liberians consider their country “not a democracy” or “a democracy with major problems,” and half are dissatisfied with the way democracy is working in Liberia.
Political parties have had their own say, expressing mixed reactions about the survey, which seems invalidate the commonplace assumption in the political, public sphere.
“What this poll has done is to support our argument that CDC is the best place entity to lead any opposition coalition and this is a justification of our argument that George Weah is the best place candidate to lead the opposition,” CDC’s Chairman Nathaniel McGill told FrontPage Africa Tuesday.
“The Washington post is a credible organization and it has confirmed our argument.”
“This is not one of the fly by night poll done around here. We are sure that this survey reflects the will of the Liberian People.”
The CDC is widely viewed as the biggest opposition political in Liberia and has a strong negotiation position in any merger talk, something pundits and actors themselves say will be pivotal in deciding who becomes the next President of Liberia.
The CDC was one of a dozen political parties that signed a merger pact in Ganta, Nimba County.
FrontPageAfrica reported last week of a meeting between the CDC and the Alternative National Congress (ANC) of retired Coca Cola executive Alexander Cummings.
On the other end, the Liberty Party of Cllr. Charles Brumskine cannot also be overlooked. Though it did not reflect as a formidable force in the Afro barometer, the LP has proven to be a force to reckon with in the impending polls.
It has attracted some political moguls, including the controversial acclaimed businessman-politician Musa Bility.
“The poll was done in 2015 and in Montserrado. It is foolhardy for anybody to think a poll will be conducted only in Montserrado and George Weah will not come on top—this is his stronghold we respect that poll,” said LP’s vice chairman for government affairs, Darius Dillon.
“We take note that it was conducted more than one year ago, we have no illusion that we are going to win this election so easily; we have no illusion that we are coming from behind and so we are approaching this election from a underdog perspective and mentality, meaning we will have to work harder and work smarter.”
“We respect the poll except that it was done more than a year ago and will give it more deeper consideration if a recent poll was conducted and I am sure if that is done the variable may just change,” Dillon added.
The Unity Party was not available for comment.
“Approaching Presidential transition, Liberians supportive and critical of their democracy” details findings from surveys conducted in Liberia in May 2015.
Afrobarometer has been conducting surveys in Liberia since 2008, so the dispatch examines trends across three waves of data: 2008, 2012 and 2015,” according to the Washington Post.
The key findings in the Afrobarometer dispatch suggest a cautious optimism about what the 2017 election means for deepening democracy in Liberia.
Two-thirds of citizens interviewed prefer democracy to any other form of government and large majorities reject one-party rule.
At the same time, citizens were critical of the quality of Liberia’s democracy; with only half of those surveyed (53 percent) saying the country was a “full democracy” or a “democracy with minor problems.” Likewise, half of those surveyed were unsatisfied with the way democracy works in Liberia.
In the same survey, Liberians were asked which party they would support if the election were held “tomorrow.” Because there are many political parties in Liberia, no single party enjoys a majority of support.
