After several months of diving deep into the state of our country and making some predictions about our future, I have arrived at this stark, paralyzing conclusion: that, unless something paradigm shifting happens, we are doomed. The only lingering question for me remains: how long do we have? Maybe a decade or two at the most? It is only a matter of time before it all comes crashing down, if Liberia continues on this trend. This eruption will happen any moment.
By Marvin R. Tarawally, [email protected], Contributing Writer
As someone living in an optimist utopia, this prognosis is unquestionably unsettling. Although I have consistently refrained from the use of doomsday rhetoric in an effort to empower our young people to have hope, it is difficult to remain optimistic in these perilous times.
In Liberia today, 1 in 2 adults (18 and older) are illiterate. 1 in 2 young people are illiterate. ~7 in 10 of our school going age population are out of school. 1 in 2 of our people live in absolute poverty. 8 in 10 people are vulnerably employed – meaning they are either self-employed or contributing to a family farm or household’s non-agricultural business (HIES 2016). Our per capita GDP is $611. Only 20% of students who start grade 1 make it to grade 12. We have a critical youth unemployment problem. Youth unemployment is above 50% in a country where ~70% of our people are young and under the age of 35. 1 in 3 children under the age of 5 are stunted and Covid19 has uncovered a festering rape culture in Liberia.
Sigh! Take a breath. Re-read these numbers. Take a screenshot. Whatever you do, remember these numbers!
The current state of Liberia is an unwritten death sentence that has ushered in collective paralysis. You hear it casually dropped in everyday conversations – “Mtcheww, Liberia can change?”, “Puah – da how we looking”. Appropriately so. Many Liberians at home are constantly angling for the slightest opportunity to escape this ‘hell’. For Liberians in the diaspora, moving back to rebuild is seemingly too risky – “things are just too broken – where do you even start?”.
The truth is, we are a nation at the brink of failure. Our ONLY life line – as have always been – is our people. All of us! Unfortunately, most of our people are functionally illiterate, unemployed and young. Our education system has continued to fail them. We all know so many people who are victims of this failed system. For me, it’s siblings, nieces, nephews, cousins inter alia. I’m heartbroken by this fact and anxious about their future. It’s always a somber reckoning for me.
A nation is only as developed as its people and Liberia will be no exception. Human capital gains are directly correlated with economic growth and there’s no counterfactual to prove otherwise. We all – especially our leaders – have known, for generations, that investing in our human capital will spur economic growth and development, possibly decentralizing wealth distribution. However, we’ve consistently failed to achieve this right from the inception of the state. Our woes today are a result of poor national planning from previous generations of leaders – a realistic justification for this much touted “us” vs “them” narrative. Arguably, there’s not a single government that has made the kind of intentional, holistic and strategic efforts to achieve this. Not a single one.
In our comparative history, no government has made the types of investment in education that would truly set us up as a nation with people competent enough to steer our country through, no matter what assail us. Our governments have never prioritized human capital as an economic strategy for real transformation to lift millions of our people out of excruciating poverty. They have not prepared us to fully withstand the rapid changes of our global economy so that we can fully participate in the fourth industrial revolution. Granted, many did some good deeds – some more than others. But, overall, all have failed to achieve the most important task of long-term economic development – investing in people with an inclination towards the future.
Nevertheless, we can all use this moment as an unintended watershed to completely overhaul this system! We need to build a country where our kids can breathe clean air, attend great schools with excellent, inspiring teachers; live and play in communities that are safe and undefiled; where electricity, internet, and water are not luxuries; where ample jobs are available to absorb our youth bulge, and where the rule of law actually rules. Every Liberian, home and abroad must make the necessary sacrifice for this to be true. We must first embrace radical optimism and adopt unconventional experimentations to make the types of investments required to truly save the state – our home. For those with capital home and abroad, there’s fear of market inefficiencies and looming political instability – we’ve got to be radically optimistic. It might not make business sense for now, but, without your investment, the system crumbles further. Invite some of the best and most exciting companies to experiment within our context. Let’s try everything now. We only have now.
Having studied how other poor countries transformed their economies, built their human capital and lifted millions of their people out of poverty, I see a consistent pattern in their development track and if adopted Liberia will not only be able to build its human capital and attract investments, it will also able create jobs and lift many Liberians out of poverty. While every citizen is required to play their part, the national Government has the most important and crucial role of setting the stage for any of this to be possible. Here are some ideas:
Investing in Education
We no longer have the luxury to try small, piecemeal efforts to solve our learning crisis. We need a complete overhaul marked by bold experiments and nontraditional thinking. Our youth need the skills to thrive in this rapidly changing digital age.
Some Targets: Overhaul curriculum to match 21st Century skills needs. Invest in technology in our classrooms to bridge the knowledge gap. Ensure schools run experiential learning across the curriculum.
Investing in Entrepreneurship
Challenge our engineers, and designers, business students, to create companies that create jobs, invent new processes and devices that will increase our overall productivity and simplify tasks. Invest in talent creation, makerspaces, research and development, favorable policy for entrepreneurs, providing catalytic capital, etc – these are crucial to creating an entrepreneurial ecosystem that produces great companies.
One Target: Setup an investment fund that invests at least $1m annually in high growth Liberian businesses with the potential to employ many of our young people.
Investing in Technology and the Sciences
We live in the fourth industrial revolution where technology and information are our most valued assets. We can’t expect our nation to truly benefit from global trade if we lack the assets/currency in which the world trades. Invest in creating a highly skilled science and tech ecosystem urgently. Fund STEM research with an aim to create commercially viable solutions, run annual science programs that expose students to robotics, 3D printing, Artificial intelligence, Virtual reality, etc.
One Target: Train 50,000 young people to become software developers. Partner with Universities and leading coding programs to deliver high quality lessons. With this skill, our young people can do remote work for companies and individuals around the world – our new reality.
Investing in TVET and Agriculture
Create a TVET program that trains and connects thousands of our unskilled youth in areas that are in demand. Set up farming cooperatives that are focused on one or two crops per county. Think of manufacturing cities in China.
Some Targets: Train at least 100,000 youth in TVET skills and connect them to work opportunities. Setup government funded farms that employ 75,000 across the country: 5,000 / county. This way, we can feed our growing population and to reduce our over reliance on the importation of food items that can be locally grown.
It is important to note that many of these interventions might never yield results in our lifetime. However, if done right, they will set the course for a better Liberia for future generations. Reconstructing this nation is a long game. Just as in the investment world long-term investments require patient capital, Liberia requires patient capital, patient people, patient politics, patient democracy, and patient opposition.
Any effort to transform Liberia for the next year or two is a flawed strategy. Think back at the scale and complexity of our problems. So many have tried and given up. Our generation can’t and must not. This is home and this is where we fully belong. Be radically optimistic and unconventional in your deeds. Maybe, just maybe, we might steer this ship in the right direction for our kids to inherit a country worth living in.
Again, we only have this moment.