Monrovia – Alexander Cummings has acknowledged that he has been involved in a lot of discussions at trying to build a coalition base ahead of the 2017 Presidential elections. President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, the incumbent is on record for stating that no single political party will walk away with presidency and it will take a coalition of the willing to pull it off. Liberia’s voter data turnout
With 22 parties registered to participate in the 2017 Presidential elections – and a few more likely to follow, a lot of behind the scenes discussions are ongoing and a lot of promises are being made but not many appear willing to make concessions. Many are wondering why?
“Collaboration is the most effective means by which the Liberian opposition can capture power at the polls. “We are currently discussing with all members of the opposition block with a view to device a means by which we can all join efforts to create a government that is able to deliver prosperity to the Liberian people” – Menipakei Dumoe, Secretary General, Liberia People Democratic Party (LPDP)
If elections were held today, the utterances of all the major contenders would on paper suggest that they are all willing to form a coalition or merger in hopes of solidifying their bases for victory in 2017.
In reality, very few appear willing as the number of registered parties – with the registration of the Movement for Democracy and Reconstruction (MDR) and the Vision for Liberia Transformation (VOLT), hit 22 last Friday, tying the final tally of the 2005 Presidential race. Liberia has had a rugged history of mergers.
Even for an incumbent political party on the way out, partnerships are often seen as an option in a quest for relevance and positions of advantage. But the ego factor amongst competing political foes has seen many promising partnerships falter.
Ahead of the 2011 Presidential race, George Weah, the political leader of the congress for Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) ruled out the possibility of running second to any of his rivals even amid reports that he and Charles Walker Brumskine, the political leader of the Liberty Party would form a dream ticket. Weah would later agree to run second to Ambassador Winston Tubman.
Many in the party believe that the fact the party finished second in the last two elections would make it unfair for them to succumb to number two under a party which fared lesser than the CDC – The party won 28.3% of the vote in the first round in 2005 but losing to Sirelaf in the run-off 40.6% to 59.4% six years later in 2011
In 2011, the party declined to contest the second round after losing to the incumbent Sirleaf’s Unity Party 43.9%, to 32.7% with Ambassador Tubman at the helm of the ticket.
Tubman alleged that the first round had been rigged in Sirleaf’s favour and called on his supporters to boycott the run-off.
The electoral institute for sustainable democracy in Africa reported a turnout of 61% as compared to the 74.9% turnout in the first round.
The elections commission declared Sirleaf the winner of the run-off on November 2011 with 90.7% of the vote. The CDC’s insistence that it is the largest and most popular party in Liberia has complicated negotiations with rivals.
Decision of ’05 still haunts Brumskine-Weah
“Politics is about number and the Liberian people have given me their blessing to direct leadership and guidance for them, and why should I go as running mate to Counsellors Brumskine or Winston Tubman?”, Weah told reporters on the eve of the 2011 Presidential race.
Ahead of the 2017 elections, murmurs of yet another Brumskine-Weah or Weah-Brumskine discussion is in the air. But the lessons of 2005 and 2011 appear to have strain ties between the two parties.
CDC still harbours anger toward Brumskine who sat on the fence in 2005 when he could have thrown his weight behind Weah in the second round against Sirleaf and 2011 when again, one CDC official said Monday, he failed to throw his weight behind the party.
“Why should we reward him for snubbing us twice,” the CDC official speaking on condition of anonymity Monday said.
The official also wondered why Brumskine is against the idea of running second to Weah.
In recent months, the CDC has embraced the idea of collaborative discussions among opposition political parties, even declaring it as good for the country’s democratization process. But discussions have often fallen apart over who would head the ticket.
One of those discussions involved Senator Prince Y. Johnson, who declared in January that he was open to collaborating with other political parties including the CDC in a bid to get an opposition victory in the 2017 Presidential and legislative elections.
The former warlord turned lawmaker was quick to point out while delivering a sermon that his collaboration with the CDC is squarely dependent on what the CDC would wish for as he expressed his desire to see an opposition alliance that will oust the ruling Unity Party from office.
“We will be collaborating with other people, we will be collaborating with the CDC if they wish so, and they better see reason, because those people from over there, i say over there, and I say over there, they are planning again their successor and we must not allow this to happen,” Senator Johnson asserted.
The Nimba county lawmaker has been upset of late with vice President joseph Boakai’s overtures to toward two Nimba representatives – former Managing Director of the Liberia Produce Marketing Corporation (LPMC) and Commerce Minister during the regime of former President Charles Taylor, Nyan Martein and Matenokay Tingban Lawmaker of District #3 in Nimba County.
Boakai’s decision to put the pair at the helm of his campaign in Nimba is said to have fuelled Johnson’s angst toward Boakai although some Boakai insiders and Johnson’s aides have hinted that efforts were made recently to mend fences.
Egos were fired up again after yet another controversy regarding the failed rainbow coalition which attempted to establish what some say would have been a formidable coalition called by the speaker of the house of representative, Alex J. Tyler in Gbarnga, Bong County.
The meeting last May brought together several high-profile individuals with political ambitions including Speaker Tyler, Senate Pro Temp Armah Jallah representative Emmanuel Nuquay, Nimba county Senator prince y. Johnson and others.
Shortly after the meeting however, friction ensued when some members of the CDC appearing on talk radio show, expressed that Weah is already a Presidential candidate and the party will only go into collaboration to look for a vice Presidential running mate, a statement that did not gone down well with other parties that attended the Gbarnga meeting.
Wilfred Bangura official Spokesperson for PYJ for President 2017 told FPA at the time: “What we know is that the meeting was for the possibility of forming a merger. It was not meant for finding a standard bearer.
They are prejudging the outcome of the meeting and we are becoming increasingly disturbed by that, if that was the reason why Weah called us, then there was no need for a meeting”.
Bangura averred that it is too early to start making statements about who will head a possible collaboration between opposition political parties.
Bangura said the PYJ camp went into those discussions with open hearts and sincerity, but cautioned the CDC to stop prejudging the outcome.
“We are listening to the leadership of CDC, not listening to them because we know there are detractors who know that if this merger becomes successful, no need for second round so if the CDC bows to these detractors, we have enough time to pull out”, he said.
Despite the many missteps and attempts at merger, some political establishments remain hopeful.
Menipakei Dumoe, Secretary General of Tyler’s Liberia People Democratic Party (LPDP) told FrontPageAfrica Monday that collaboration is the most effective means by which the Liberian opposition can capture power at the polls.
“We are currently discussing with all members of the opposition block with a view to device a means by which we can all join efforts to create a government that is able to deliver prosperity to the Liberian people.”
Dumoe adds: “Our party will never work with the ruling unity party because we believe the party as is currently positioned is working to protect an oppressive system of government working to protect the selfish interests of the ruling family and its allies.
The LPDP approaches the process of collaboration with an open mind and encourage all opposition figures to remember that the best interest and well-being of the Liberian people is always more important than our personal political goals and ambitions.”
Complicated pairings factor in conversations
The ruling party has seen a wave of defections in recent months with Tyler being the most high-profile player from the unity party (UP), Liberia unification party (LUP) and Liberian Action Party (LAP) merger.
But even Sirleaf acknowledges the party’s limitations.
“I don’t think any political party can win on its own giving the number of parties. So, if you see people negotiating, dialoguing it is because that they have all realized that some coalition has to be made for a particular party or parties to be successful.”
In recent months, speculations have heightened that the ruling party has gone fishing in hopes of finding a formidable partnership for Boakai.
Many political analysts say, the incumbent carries a baggage that could hurt Boakai if he ventures into 2017 on his own – without packaging his brand with some kind of merger.
Thus, reports of a Boakai-Weah and Boakai-Weah scenarios are being discussed and debated within some circles of the ruling party. It is a risk that comes with a lot of complications.
A Boakai-Brumskine pairing, some say may have a tough sell to party Chairman Varney Sherman who has not had a strong tie with Brumskine.
Adding more fuel to the complications, both Boakai and Brumskine have inner demons within their political organization that may be unwilling to allow the pairing to hold.
Liberty Party partisans for example are quietly expressing fears that a pairing of their political leader could be dead on arrival while Boakai’s supporters are said to be pushing him toward picking someone from bong or Nimba in hopes of striking a combo of vote-rich Nimba and his hometown, Lofa County.
Other speculations have surfaced of potential overtures between the CDC and businessman Benoni Urey.
While the exact make-up of who will top such a ticket remains unknown, one political party executive noted Monday, that everything will have to be put on the table and some of us will have to give in.
2 dozen parties; under 2 million votes
But beneath the speculations lay the hard truth that Liberia, a country of four and a half million people is approaching the two dozen mark for political parties with a fewer percentage voter registration record.
In 2011, 1,798,930, one million, seven hundred, ninety eight thousand, nine hundred and thirty Liberians registered to vote while in 2005, 1,252, 730 (one million, two hundred fifty two thousand, seven hundred and thirty Liberians registered to vote, according to the institute for democracy and electoral assistance.
In 2005, 22 candidates contested the Presidential elections while 16 candidates contest the presidency in the 2011 Presidential elections. In 1997, the elections that brought Charles Taylor to power saw 13 candidates eyeing the presidency.
Chapter 8.1 of the guidelines of the National Elections Commission stipulates that registered political parties may be allowed to merge or consolidate.
However,”registered political parties wishing to merge or consolidate shall each pass a resolution consenting to the merger or consolidation signed by 2/3 of the members of the executive committee.”
For the immediate future, many political parties appear unsure about each other even as they undertake behind-the-scenes discussions. Many appear at least for now to be leaning toward going their separate ways and eventually throwing their weight behind one of two candidates in the event of a second round.
This was evident recently when former Internal Affairs Minister, Blamo Nelson suggested a broad based progressive electoral alliance comprising grassroots progressive groups while recommending that member parties of the broad based progressive electoral alliance should agree on an in-house protocol that will make it possible to jointly contest elections without opposing each other for positions in any constituency in the country.
Nelson, a former Senator of Grand Kru County also stressed the need for members of his proposed progressive electoral alliance not to form mergers, since it will require dissolution of their various political parties.
Open to the conversation, but…
The LAP-UP and LUP experience is giving many political establishments reasons to have a second thought. Nelson was adamant that the formation of mergers will disabuse progressives of all emotional and psychological connections with the past.
“We must be wise to know that no one political party can solve all the problems of Liberia alone. Twenty-one political parties contesting to defeat each other at the ballot box in such a small country as Liberia makes no sense politically, socially and economically,” he added.
For the immediate future, new-entry candidates like Cummings is hopeful that early commitments from a few parties could help solidify his hold with voters.
“We are in discussions with other political parties as we speak; including some of their leaders; because i agree, it will take some coalition of individuals and parties to win the election.
Even more important though, I think it will take a coalition of parties and individuals that actually leads the country.
While Cummings insists that he is open to the conversation with any and all political parties, he too has his eyes set on the big prize.
“What I will say though is my interest is in running for the presidency of Liberia.”
“I’m not doing this to get my name out there so i can run the next time. I’m going to do this with every fibre in my body, with the resources i can muster from the Liberian people to win the leadership of our country.”
But even Cummings, a former coca cola executive still new to the rugged political terrain agrees that coalition is his best shot at the presidency.
“It will need to happen through coalitions, through conversations. I don’t want to presuppose what the shape of that would be.
I think all of us going into this conversation need to be open to whatever the outcome comes out and I’m going to go into this conversation opened to that.”
Rodney D. Sieh, [email protected]